Unless you're comatose, you know that the world is looking at a COVID-19 epidemic (coronavirus, Wuhan Flu, etc.).
Over the last 2 weeks in the United States, having done too little too late to prepare for the inevitable arrival of the virus, the instinctual response has been as expected — total panic and overreaction.
Most Americans (including me) are hunkered down "sheltering in place" or enduring forced unemployment. The most expert opinion I've found states that COVID-19 has at most a 0.6% mortality rate (here, after the 8:00 mark). The elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions are the most vulnerable. The large majority of people will have mild symptoms or no symptoms.
You've probably heard all sorts of hysterical estimates about the mortality rate — 3%, 4%, 7% and so on. Humans and Reality are permanently estranged and always have been.
Everyone is being urged to stay home because health care experts have told our wise political leaders that the health care system may get overwhelmed by a flood of new COVID-19 sufferers, most of whom would recover if they get the hospital care they need. If the hospitals have to turn people away because they've run out of space, some of those victims will die. In that case the mortality rate will creep up. Nobody prepared for this in advance of course. The idea is to "bend" (flatten) the new case curve so it doesn't go exponential. This will allow the hospitals to keep up with acute reactions to the virus.
Humans are self-defeating fuck-ups in this particular case because here in America and in Europe and elsewhere, humans are destroying the global economy in response to COVID-19. Their already compromised minds are overloaded. This invisible and therefore ever-present virus is construed as the only threat of any real importance now. They've got self-defeating tunnel vision. Ironically, it seems that anything or anyone can be sacrificed in the name of fighting COVID-19.
But by and large, the virus is not an existential threat to the vast majority of humans. For that vast majority, the existential threat here is the destruction of working people's livelihoods and the longer-term demand destruction which will follow. The hysterical response includes the ongoing crash of the stock market and the growing insolvency of the banks, which no longer have cash reserves requirements. The credit markets are imploding.
Can you say Déjà vu?
It took 10 years to recover from the crash of the global economy in 2008, but the crash we're seeing now may be much worse. It is certainly happening faster. I hope it isn't worse, but the longer the COVID-19 panic goes on, the worse the consequences will be and the longer the terrible effects will go on.
In the end of course, if the economy is well and truly fucked over the longer term, only the Big Money Boys will get bailed out just like the last time we went through this kind of human-created disaster.
In so far as virtually nobody is saying any of this because of that tunnel vision I spoke of earlier, I thought you might like to know what your future may look like.
Post-Script — when GDP falls by 4-5%, carbon emissions will go way down! What was it the guy nailed to the cross said? Always look on the bright side of life...
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