U.S. stocks rallied today, which was not a surprise The S&P 500 finished the day down 1.4%. A trader named "Fly" takes a longer view.
Futures are lifting off and all is well in China, following a clown-car like -5.5% open. Right after those communist bastards (extra Red Scare) fixed their markets higher, Japan followed suit. Commodities are up and all is well again [oil prices here].
Here is what I am wrestling with now.
This feels different. Previous market dramas were caused by superfluous events: Greek-German comedies, Federal Reserve maladies and a series of stupid things purported by Congress and let’s not forget the end of the world as we knew it: Ebola. All of those, sans the end of the world zombie causing virus, were fixable, short term events. But this is permanent: Chinese fuckery, largess, slowing the growth engine of the world.
If the China [growth] story is truly dead, I’m afraid today’s “drop” will look like child’s play 1 year from today...
Exactly. And I believe China's phenomenal growth story is truly dead. I used to write posts about China's comeuppance, but got tired of waiting for it. It's impossible to time this stuff. Even now I'm going out on a limb.
So I believe a global minsky moment has arrived.
Humans typically can't see beyond the end of their noses. Today is no exception.
A large global shift in the wrong direction (from a growth point of view) is underway. Americans in particular will have a lot of difficulty appreciating the importantance of stuff happening on the other side of the world, even those who can find China on a map
China?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ChjZhYr5Vds
We have no control.
Posted by: T.J. | 08/25/2015 at 03:49 PM