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It's all very interesting - this relatively abrupt collapse in crude oil prices. My own variant of Occam’s Razor is based on my simple understanding of supply and demand. Namely that the demand for oil has decreased, probably owing to the weakening 'global economy', but the price effect of this has been dramatically magnified by the public refusal of OPEC - principally Saudi Arabia - to reduce production in response, coupled with deafening silence from the US regarding its shale oil production, which ought to be in severe existential crisis with prices going south of $50 a barrel.

Occam's Razor? The reason for the price collapse (as opposed to moderate correction) is the deliberate shunning of the law of supply and demand, played out in geopolitical cooperation between the US and Saudi Arabia aimed at weakening an emergent Russia.

Focusing on outcomes (re. previous post), if Russia and China work up the nerve to dump the petrodollar, the US economy has the furthest to fall.

And now I shall re-enter my cave of ignorance from which I briefly emerged.

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