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And a joyous new old year to you, Dave.

You are ever so polite to avoid describing Bonaiuti as a wishful-thinking moron. What descriptor should be reserved for Ahmed is out to tender.

As soon as I read the words the unprecedented spate of global unrest I got the measure of the latter's brain impairment. Unprecedented??! I don't possess enough bile to do justice to this fellow.

Joseph Nightingale

Happy New Year Dave! I found this blog in late 2014, an early Christmas and Birthday present for me. So thanks.

After part 1 I wasn't exactly hopeful for part II (though he did have some nice graphs), but I actually enjoyed it. Gave me a good belly laugh. A friend told me a few years ago the green energy movement would begin to look more and more like a fundamentalist religion. I wasn't a "realist" back then but here we are in 2015 and the Church of the Solar panel are out in force.

If only we spent longer in the rift valley we might not have been so undercooked. Ah well, here's to 2015 a year that will be just as crazy as the last.


Yup, the assumption that humans make rational decisions is alive and well in the new year. Flatland is, indeed, really, really, well... flat.

Alexander Ač

Thanks Dave!

There is no to wish of a Happy New Year. On a side note, I thought that 2015 will be the LAST year, when a significant change for ...[add your favorite wish] was possible. But so was 2014, and 2013, 2012 ... at least, we still have to live!




We can at least start 2015 with a laugh!

"Applies the tools of complexity science? To what? To these guys?"


Business as Usual keeps a good two thirds or more of the world population alive, via the transport of food from productive areas to where people live, also through inputs into farming itself to produce the necessary large yields. The end of business of usual, which will happen because there is a finite amount of the fossil fuels needed and their use really pollutes the atmosphere, will be accompanied by most people dying pretty quickly.

Therefore, there is no predicting the "crisis year". Business as usual will be kept going as long as it possibly can, even if the biosphere is irrecoverably trashed in the process. I figure it definitely has a good two years to run, though I find it hard to see how it can keep going for more than fifteen years from now.


@Ed - I've learned not to underestimate Flatlanders' extreme cunning fueled by a voracious appetite for greed. This is also quaintly known as survival of the fittest. Anyone who chooses not participate in the Flatland spree for self-preservation may not pass the 15-year mark you mention, but I'm not counting on the end of business as usual in the absence of nice large asteroid arriving in the neighborhood.

Robert Callaghan

I've been waiting for a revolution since 1917.

The first link explains mass extinction vs. green energy.

The second link explains how fucking evil we can be.


I love it! The "tools of complexity science!" Glory be! And what, pray tell are these "tools" of which the author speaks? I'll bet good money that if there are any useful "tools of complexity" they are doing Lloyd Blankfein's "God's work" via a happless Russian immigrant slaving over an algorithm to front run and screw an additional penny out of some pension fund as it tries to buy stocks.

Jake Gittes: You can follow the action, which gets you good pictures. You can follow your instincts, which'll probably get you in trouble. Or, you can follow the money, which nine times out of ten will get you closer to the truth.

As was so well said in Chinatown - if you want to know what's going on then follow the money. These hacks write this drivel in the service of whom? Who pays them and who pays their payers? Paint your upper lip with mentholatum because the stench of a rotting fish will be the reward of your search.

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