Decline of the Empire

Science Is Hard, Time Is Short

Still keeping busy — Dave

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Changes in the oceans are happening too fast for most species to cope. It’s clear we are conducting a giant experiment on the planet and we don’t know what we are doing.
   — ocean scientist Ulf Riebesell

There has been an explosion of new scientific knowledge during the 60 years I've lived on this planet, and that trend continues. One reason I write confidently about humankind's apparently bleak future is due to having a perspective rooted in science's ever-improving understanding of the natural world and how human actions are affecting it. When people discuss the future, there's no reason to trust anyone who is unacquainted with the relevant science, or anyone who cherry picks that science to confirm their own biases. Worse yet, many people simply don't understand the science they're quoting, and use unstated, unsupported assumptions in conjunction with things they don't understand. I see this kind of behavior all the time.

That said, science is not some monolithic truth machine. Progress in understanding is often slow; mistakes are made. Away from the public eye, scientists argue strenuously with each other. There is always some degree of uncertainty in any published, peer-reviewed result. Obviously scientists share the same sort of cognitive biases which all humans have. Science is hard, even for scientists. The beauty of the "scientific method" is that the process of gaining greater understanding—critiques by others in the scientific community, pertinent new data, and all the rest—eventually arrives at something closely approximating objective truth. In the environmental sciences, our approximation of "objective truth" changes (gets better) as human influences on the biosphere pile up over time (i.e. there is observable deterioration).

Confusion In The Twilight Zone

Following Arthur Schopenhauer's wise prescription, I am keeping busy. Thus I give you this follow-up to my Twilight Zone essay — Dave

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Discerning and thoughtful observers of current trends have either concluded or are becoming convinced that humans will do nothing significant to mitigate anthropogenic climate change in the next 10 to 15 years. Most climate scientists will tell you that those years are critical to maintaining the Earth's environmental health, for it seems clear that humanity will commit itself to (at least) 2 degrees centigrade (2° C) of surface warming in that time frame. Climate scientists generally believe that reaching or surpassing this threshold constitutes "dangerous interference" with the Earth's climate.

As I discussed in Your Next Stop, The Twilight Zone, and on a global scale, the issue which defines how things will go must be framed as The Economy Versus The Environment—everything follows from the balance struck between these two overarching concerns.