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The prospects are far more severe because Grantham (and most others who make predictions about the global food supply, prominent among them Lester Brown) don't take into account a threat to yield and quality on a par with extreme weather from climate change, which is tropospheric ozone. From a UNEP report (overly optimistic and out of date of course):

"Feeding a growing world population has become one of the major issues of our century and we cannot afford to lose millions of tons of crops each year because of air pollution. Present day global relative yield losses due to tropospheric ozone exposure range between 7-12 percent for wheat, 6-16 percent for soybean, 3-4 percent for rice, and 3-5 percent for maize."

As I point out in that particular blog post, although agricultural agencies around the world acknowledge the threat to annual crops from ozone, they won't even go near a much larger topic - what is the impact on biannual and perennial vegetation that is exposed to cumulative damage, year after year? What of crops like artichokes and raspberries and asparagus and rhubarb? Most importantly, what of trees that produce fruit and nuts?

There is also a tangential effect on the feed for livestock, which is rendered less nutritious.

I'm afraid that, since it appears we are going to do exactly nothing to reduce fuel emissions that lead to ozone, the persistent background level in the troposphere will continue its accelerating climb, with devastating consequences to our food supply and a concurrent acceleration in all the collapse issues associated with it.

More excerpts to the UNEP report here:


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