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05/13/2012

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T E Cho

Dave, spot on again.

Why do people assume that the blip in technological power growth in the 1860 -1960 period would continue?

People always try to curve fit a linear or an exponential pattern, when most everything real is a periodic-cyclical and/or added to complex randomized noise.

What law is there that 'technological power' must follow any such simple math extrapolations. Nature and reality are mostly highly complex, erratic, unpredictable. Graph the average speed of autos or airplanes over the last 100 years, and it clear that a period of increase occurred and stopped. So no, we won't have clean, cheap thermonuclear batteries to power and liiuminate some hydroponic skyscraper gardens within the next 20 years.

Everything in history and nature has been chaotic, civilizations rising and falling, but now suddenly everything will be smooth , simple , convenient linear or exponential curves for our benefit?

We don't need better technology, we need better people.

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