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02/27/2012

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Timetraveler_2047

See Jeffrey Brown's Export Land Model (ELM) and "available net exports" or ANE:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model

http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2010/10/peak-oil-versus-peak-exports/

Note that China's total crude oil consumption is rapidly converging on the amount of US crude oil imports. At the trend rates of oil consumption and imports, by no later than the early 2020's, China's crude oil imports and consumption will reach par with that of the US, resulting in the US and China consuming more than half of total global crude oil production (38% today), leaving the rest of the world with 20-25% less crude oil to consume than today.

Should the trend rates of growth of oil consumption and imports continue, the US and China will consume 80% of world oil production by 2030 and 100% by no later than mid-century. Obviously, were this to happen, no growth would be possible in the rest of the world, and the price of oil will be so high that growth will have long before ceased in the US and China.

However, a crisis in global crude oil supply constraints will occur long before the 2020's-30's. At the total ANE today (and falling), of which the US consumes ~28%, China will consume the current US share of ANE by late decade, ensuring that growth in the rest of the world is over and contraction is the "new normal".

At persistently above $80/bbl, real growth of GDP per capita in the US, EU, and Japan (two-thirds of world GDP) contracts. But $80+ oil is required for crude substitutes to be profitable to extract (although not in environmental terms). We cannot have our expensive crude substitutes AND grow the economy.

The irony of the Anglo-American imperial trade regime is that US supranational firms' more than $1.7 trillion of foreign direct investment (FDI) since the 1980's in China and SE Asia is now driving Asian demand for oil and other resources to the extent that the marginal costs are prohibiting real GDP growth in the US, EU, and Japan, whereas China and India are growing too fast and about to crash into the thermodynamic limit bound of Peak Oil.

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