The Bureau of Labor Statistics loves complexity. Their reports use lots of categories and adjustments to give us an "accurate" picture of the job market in the United States. Or so we are told. And after they've pigeonholed those surveyed, and after they've adjusted the hell out of everything, they come up with a magic number, the U3 "official" unemployment rate. That rate currently stands at 8.3%, which recently provided a pretext for politicians, economists and media blowhards to tell us how well we're doing.
When Gallup polls Americans to get a snapshot of the jobs market, they do not use a lot of categories. They do not make a lot of adjustments. They ask Americans some simple questions and publish the results.
The U.S. government in early March will report its February unemployment rate. That rate will be based on mid-month conditions. Therefore, Gallup's mid-month unemployment reading, based on data collected through the 15th of the month, normally provides a good basis on which to estimate the direction of the government's unemployment rate for the month. In mid-January, Gallup results suggested the unemployment rate would decline, consistent with the government's positive January jobs report of Feb. 3.
Seasonal forces typically cause unadjusted unemployment rates to increase at this time of year. In this regard, some of the sharp increase Gallup finds in unemployment and underemployment may result from seasonal factors.
Although the government seasonally adjusts the U.S. unemployment rate, and the workforce participation rate could decline — both of which could drive down its unemployment rate — it still seems likely that the BLS will report an increase in the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for February.
Regardless of what the government reports, Gallup's unemployment and underemployment measures show a sharp deterioration in job market conditions since mid-January. This is consistent with a similar decline in Gallup's Job Creation Index to +13 in the second week of February, from +16 for January. It is also consistent with an economy that continues to struggle with modest growth, particularly as gas prices surge. Further, it suggests that it is premature to assume the condition of the economy will not remain a major issue for Americans both financially and politically in 2012.
No one in the media reports Gallup's results. Politicians do not quote them. Economists ignore them. Yet here they are for all to see, as conspicuous as the nose on your face.
The unemployment rate is 9%. Underemployment, which includes those working part-time who want full-time work, stands at 19%, or nearly 1 in 5 Americans who are 18 or older.
Only a few bloggers report this stuff. Very few. We should not trust the government in this matter or any other. So much of what the government says is self-serving propaganda. Thus if you care about the state of the world you live in, it is incumbent upon you to seek out different sources of information and to make decisions as to their trustworthiness.
I think Gallup's numbers are in the ball park. Their picture of the jobs market is as good as we're going to get. The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses smoke & mirrors to pull the wool over the eyes of The People. They have no credibility. I no longer take them seriously. And neither should you.
Didn't you know Dave? Anecdotal evidence doesn't count. Personal experience is a mythical thing, like Nessie or Sasquatch or alien encounters. The experts have all their fancy techniques and tools so they don't have to listen to the actual needs and concerns of the lowly masses.
Posted by: Wanooski | 02/25/2012 at 11:03 AM