Then you will know the truth, and the truth will set you free
—Gospel of John, 8:32
Resistance is futile
—The Borg, from the TV show Star Trek
Nonfarm payroll employment was unchanged (0) in August, and the unemployment rate held at 9.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in most major industries changed little over the month.
Health care continued to add jobs, and a decline in information employment reflected a strike. Government employment continued to trend down, despite the return of workers from a partial government shutdown in Minnesota.
The "consensus" said 67,000 jobs would be added. Nobody bothered to ask me or any of my fellow bloggers what we thought. Mish has posted an informative interactive graphic showing what industries have added or lost jobs, and where those jobs are located.
The conventional wisdom now states that the economic downturn will be protracted, and Americans should all be patient. Some of the idiots saying this, the very same idiots who spoke of "the recovery" not so long ago, note that we had a financial crisis, and it always takes a long time to recover from one of those. Others concoct lame-brained stories—deficit reduction? more tax cuts for the rich?—explaining why our misery will take years to cure, but a cure will be found. Nevertheless, everybody also has a half-baked, quick-fix "solution" to our problems.
As far as I know, DOTE is one of the few places where America's long term decline, which started in the early 1980s, is identified as the root cause of this 21st century-style economic depression. It's right there in the data, folks: rising household debt, stagnant incomes at the bottom, astonishing wealth inequality, skyrocketing health care and college tuition costs, lost manufacturing jobs, you name it. Virtually every significant data trend tracks our long term decline.
During the Bubble Era (1995-2007), most of America's alleged "growth" was based on unwarranted asset price inflation. In other words, it was phony. Nobody discusses this. Nobody wonders why that was the case. They make up stories about returning to ... what? The good old days? What could they possibly mean by that? Do they mean the 1960s?
Other trends reflect different timing. America's domestic oil production peaked in 1970, but oil remained cheap until the early 2000s, when the price began an inexorable (though volatile) rise which will not abate in our lifetime. Higher oil prices act as a tax on Americans, the price paid for our precious, non-negotiable lifestyle.
Food costs are now setting annual records according to the FAO. We have crossed an invisible line where global warming is starting to drive food price inflation. Again, this rise is inexorable. Anthropogenic climate change will also drive other deleterious trends, such as fresh water shortages and an increase in destructive extreme weather events. As long as the emerging economies (especially China) continue to grow like crazy, trying to make up for time lost in the 20th century, commodity prices will rise across the board.
And then there are the general environmental concerns (e.g. ocean acidification, wild-caught fish declines, the current mass extinction), but I won't get into that today.
In this context, a jobs report showing we are going nowhere fast is merely a single short-term indicator of our distress. As long as the structural problems inhibiting further growth (oil, climate, incomes, debt, etc.) remain, expectations of a resumption of growth are fiction, comforting stories people tell themselves to bolster the constant Hope that things will miraculously get better. Can't live without the Hope!
But it is always The Truth that sets you free. If humanity in general, and Americans in particular, would only acknowledge these problems, there might be some way of doing something about them. The endless economic growth model would have to go out with the trash.
False hope is a form of resistance, an unwillingness to face up to our true situation on this besieged planet and in this corrupted country. But as I tell you all the time here on DOTE, resistance is futile.
Bonus Video
Good summary Dave. A pertinent comment from the Master: "When you're born into this world you're given a ticket to the freak show, and when you're born in America you're given a front row seat."
Posted by: JC | 09/02/2011 at 10:38 AM