Another Energy Propaganda Blitz

Let me explain the way the world works. DOTE reader "el realista" sent me a link to a New York Times story.

Good Mornin' Dave,

You must have read Yerkin's recent comments and rebuttals - in line with that is this article in the NY Times: New Fields May Propel Americans to Top of Oil Companies' Lists

The first quote is from Yerkin.

Recent comments and rebuttals? What was he talking about? "Yerkin" is a reference to Daniel Yergin, a well-known Apostle of Plenty in the energy biz. His starry-eyed glass-half full message is that technology solves all problems, including our energy problems, and thus our cups runneth over when it comes to oil, natural gas, you name it. Whatever resources exist now, there's lots more where those came from. According to Yergin, we never run out of anything.

I hadn't been thinking about oil lately, with all the other disasters going on. Still, I read the Times article and immediately recognized the usual propaganda. Oil production in the Americas (both of them) is going great guns, we're basically drowning in the stuff, we'll never have oil problems again. Yergin chipped in, saying—

"This is an historic shift that’s occurring, recalling the time before World War II when the U.S. and its neighbors in the hemisphere were the world’s main source of oil,” said Daniel Yergin, an American oil historian. “To some degree, we’re going to see a new rebalancing, with the Western Hemisphere moving back to self-sufficiency."

With respect to crude oil, the Western Hemisphere will reach energy self-sufficiency when Pigs Can Fly. I was about to file the Times story under the "will maybe post on this sometime later" category, when who should I hear quoted on National Public Radio? Daniel Yergin! See Daniel Yergin Examines America's 'Quest' For Energy.

I recognized immediately that we were under assault by yet another energy propaganda blitz featuring the media's favorite expert, the Apostle of Plenty. Having written about oil for years before I started this blog, I am familiar with these coordinated campaigns. I had experienced them a few times before, though not recently. To wit—

• The release of the EIA's International Energy Outlook, 2011


• Stories about the EIA's report like CNN Money's Global Energy Use To Jump 53% (by 2030)


• The New York Times article just cited, which quotes Yergin


• The NPR story just cited, which centers around Yergin


• A longish article in the Wall Street Journal written by Yergin called There Will Be Oil


• Various articles supporting Yergin, like Kurt Brouwer's Peak Oil, Daniel Yergin & Impending Doom at MarketWatch

All of these media reports (and many, many more) appeared in the last few days. There you have it, folks, there's your American corporate-owned media in action. Our "free press". All the news that's fit to print. NPR is not corporate-owned, of course

The Journal article by Yergin is a long anti-Peak Oil screed, with many criticisms of M. King Hubbert. Yergin states his thesis right at the top.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, a fear has come to pervade the prospects for oil, fueling anxieties about the stability of global energy supplies. It has been stoked by rising prices and growing demand, especially as the people of China and other emerging economies have taken to the road.

This specter goes by the name of "peak oil."

Its advocates argue that the world is fast approaching (or has already reached) a point of maximum oil output. They warn that "an unprecedented crisis is just over the horizon." The result, it is said, will be "chaos," to say nothing of "war, starvation, economic recession, possibly even the extinction of homo sapiens."

The date of the predicted peak has moved over the years. It was once supposed to arrive by Thanksgiving 2005. Then the "unbridgeable supply demand gap" was expected "after 2007." Then it was to arrive in 2011. Now "there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020."

But there is another way to visualize the future availability of oil: as a "plateau."

In this view, the world has decades of further growth in production before flattening out into a plateau—perhaps sometime around midcentury—at which time a more gradual decline will begin. And that decline may well come not from a scarcity of resources but from greater efficiency, which will slacken global demand...

Just in the years 2007 to 2009, for every barrel of oil produced in the world, 1.6 barrels of new reserves were added. And other developments—from more efficient cars and advances in batteries, to shale gas and wind power—have provided reasons for greater confidence in our energy resiliency. Yet the fear of peak oil maintains its powerful grip...

"Hubbert was imaginative and innovative," recalled Peter Rose, who was Hubbert's boss at the U.S. Geological Survey. But he had "no concept of technological change, economics or how new resource plays evolve. It was a very static view of the world." Hubbert also assumed that there could be an accurate estimate of ultimately recoverable resources, when in fact it is a constantly moving target.

The graph Yergin uses to support his case (just above) includes every liquid known to man—crude oil, natural gas liquids, biofuels of all kinds, refining gains, etc. Yergin calls all of this stuff "oil". But "peak oil" refers to so-called conventional oil, which also usually includes unconventional liquids from the tar sands. For the record, here's the most recent graph showing crude oil plus condensate production.

From Gregor. Note that about 1.6 million barrels per day from Libya is still shut-in.

Aside from that shut-in Libyan oil, it appears the world crude oil production is on a plateau right now. See my older post Peak Oil — Where Do We Stand?

Why another coordinated Yergin-led energy propaganda blitz right here, right now? I'm not sure why. I could refute this Yergin nonsense at great length, but why bother? People are going to believe what they want to believe. For example, the New York Times article is rife with errors of fact, optimistic exaggerations, and crucial omissions.

What's important for you to know is that you are constantly subject to propaganda of this sort, if not about oil, then about something else (e.g. "class warfare" if we raise taxes on the rich). Despite high oil prices now and forever, you must be reassured that all is well, and all will be well.

So, are you feeling better now? Do you feel reassured?

Comments

[John Theodorou]

I don't think the Libyan oil that's been shut-in is going to make any real difference to that chart as Saudi Arabia has sworn to defend $85 oil and we know what this is code for - production cuts.