DOTE readers know I now shun Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs reports. But I do glance at the headlines, and both Mish and Calculated Risk pointed out the same contradiction. Here's CR—
A common question is why the unemployment rate increased to 9.0% even though 244 thousand payroll jobs were added? This is because the data comes from two separate surveys. The establishment survey showed a gain of 244,000 payroll jobs in April, but the household survey showed a loss of 190,000 jobs.
I couldn't stop laughing
Surely you know by now that McDonalds hired 62,000 workers last month. But it would be a mistake to assume the 244,000 payroll jobs included them.
Some serious misinformation about the government’s April employment report is floating around the Internet. McDonald’s Corp. is erroneously getting credit for 62,000 of the 268,000 net new private-sector jobs created last month, or 23% of the total.
Most of the people referring to the McDonald’s figure in Internet forum comments seem to be using it to disparage the hiring total, which was the largest private-sector job gain for any month since February 2006.
McDonald’s did hire 62,000 people last month, but that was on April 19, in a one-day recruiting program nationwide.
Those hires wouldn’t have counted in the U.S. job tally because the government’s monthly survey of employers, which is used to determine net job gains or losses, was done the previous week, said Joe LaVorgna, economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York.
But don't despair. Those McJobs will show up in the May data.
The McDonald’s hires should show up in the May jobs data, [Lavorgna] said.
The fast-food giant said on April 28 that it took in more than one million applications on April 19. McDonald’s said it had originally planned to hire 50,000 full- and part-time workers but boosted the total to 62,000.
The company didn’t disclose the breakdown of full-time versus part-time jobs.
It is as if McDonald's has gone out of its way to emphasize that you can always get a lousy job in America, even if you often need a college degree to qualify. Note that McDonald's didn't disclose the breakdown of full-time versus part-time jobs. Having a lousy job is one thing. Having a lousy part-time job is quite another. If you require documentation—you always should—see my post Documenting The Demise Of The Middle Class, and follow the links therein.
Which brings us to the April Gallup polling data. I consider Gallup's number to be the official unemployment or underemployment rate. There appeared to be Good News in the joblessness rate.
I've circled the crucial data to show you that the dip to 9.4%* which occurred in late April also occurred last year at exactly the same time. So, there's an asterisk attached to the number, much like the one attached to Barry Bonds' home run record. The Good News remains provisional
And this is where McDonalds fits in. The number of underemployed Americans (without a job or working part-time but desiring full-time work) rose dramatically above the end-March level.
The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work increased to 9.9% at the end of April -- up from 9.6% in mid-April and 9.1% at the end of March. More U.S. workers are now working part time but seeking full-time work than was true a year ago (9.3%).
Next month, when the McJobs are added in, I expect the same thing—a lower unemployment rate, but a higher underemployment rate.
I think it's time for us doubters—whiners, killjoys, bears, defeatists, pessimists, party poopers, anyone with a Bad Attitude—to declare bittersweet "victory" regarding the jobless recovery. It's here to stay.
Chart from Calculated Risk
Now if we could only get politicians and economists to shut the fuck up, and stop telling us everything is going to be OK, we might start getting somewhere. Don't hold your breath.
What do you want to bet that McDonalds hired 60k workers and will fire 60k higher paid workers in the coming months. I'll bet their job turnover hasn't been what it usually is for the last 2 to 3 years and they need to get rid of higher paid senior workers.....
Like business has been doing for years.
Posted by: Sellstop | 05/09/2011 at 12:03 AM