The Pattern Behind Self-Deception

Sunday is always a slow day on DOTE, so if there is some "serious" issue I want to cover, I'll do that after the weekend. Today we've got Skeptic Magazine's Michael Shermer giving a TED Talk called The Pattern Behind Self-Deception. Shermer explains one (rather convincing) theory of how humans delude themselves. In so far as self-delusion is a frequent theme on this blog, I thought it was worth watching. If you do watch it, watch it all the way through. Shermer talks about some interesting stuff in the last 5 minutes. One lesson he emphasizes that you should pay attention to goes something like this:

Humans are innately predisposed to faith and belief, not to rational analysis based on evidence

This rule pervades all things human, but Shermer's presentation only scratches the surface. It is common for economists to take terrible long-term data—on wages & income inequality, debt levels, job creation, health care costs and so on—and put a happy face on it, or simply ignore it. Often this involves cherry picking, which we might define as carefully selecting some of the data and finding a pattern in it that points to economic progress even when arguably, and most reasonably, none exists.

Since economists and politicians in power (or their flunkies) want to believe (i.e. are predisposed to believe) that things are improving, and have a vested interest in positive results, they can spin propaganda stories all day long assuring us that conditions are getting better. In contrast, those who have a vested interest in negative results do the same thing, finding adverse data patterns where they do not exist, or making up damning stories to suit their purposes. The role played by self-deception in both cases is almost always underappreciated.

Mark Twain called views arising entirely from (usually unconscious) self-interest corn-pone opinions.

"You tell me whar a man gits his corn pone, en I'll tell you what his 'pinions is."

All those who accept the inherent Goodness of the status quo have corn-pone opinions. These are people benefiting somehow from the current socioeconomic regime, or who believe they will benefit from it in the future. These are the kind of people who celebrate quarterly increases in the Gross Domestic Product, who believe the future looks bright regardless of abundant evidence to the contrary. On the other hand, those looking to overthrow the status quo often have hidden agendas—hidden even from themselves—and want to do so in name only.

But in saying this, like Shermer, I too have only scratched the surface. Unraveling human self-deception or attempts to deceive others is always a very complex business. Humans are chock-full of innate biases and defense mechanisms (denial, rationalization, projection, etc.) which are routinely applied, albeit unconsciously, to everyday situations in the home, at work, or in running the economy. In fact, macroeconomic theories enshrining perpetual growth appear to be a massive rationalization used to justify (or defend) the human biological urge to be fruitful and multiply even as we destroy our Earthly habitat. Surely this is the most massive rationalization ever conceived. Thus is Progress enshrined in our psyches.

For a few of my thoughts on these matters, read my posts The Astounding World Of The Future and Explaining Mindless Economic Optimism. I also think its a good time to watch this PBS video featuring Matt Ridley, who styles himself The Rational Optimist. As we watch the world deteriorating around us, and most experience deterioration in their own lives, some might assume that only a blind man could miss it. But Ridley's glass remains half-full, not half-empty. In fact, Matt's cup runneth over! In other words, if we think in terms of self-deception, Ridley is as crazy as the day is long. When you watch the video, note that Matt fails to mention the role of fossil fuels in the advances of the last 200 years. I guess he just forgot!

Enjoy!

 

 

Comments

[DaShui]

I read an explanation of self deception by an evolutionary biologist. People first learned how to deceive others, then other people learned how to detect this deception, so self deception evolved because it is harder to detect deception in someone who is also self deceived. This way when someone says his getting rich doing crony capitalism is "God's Work", he can feel he is telling the truth.