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01/02/2011

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John D

While focusing on the employment percent numerator, we accept the denominator as a given. Population increase, much of it fueled by legal immigration, is assumed to be unchangeable? Without appearing racist, we need to rationally look at legal immigration. While we are a 'nation of immigrants', we've reached a point where we need a moratorium until we can get our act together.

Chris in Chicago

Right on. I have been thinking the same thing. Service is the only
industry that adds jobs and we all know how well they pay.

I believe alternative energy and energy efficiency could drive the economy sometime down the road,but not until there is a monumental
shift in the way people and society think or there is a drastic rise
in energy costs.

Part of me wants to see a huge rise in oil prices because i think that is the only way to get americans out of there suvs and thinking
about things on a grander scale. That shock would be painfull.

All i here about is that the stock market is doing great and corporate profits are at record highs. The market doesnt mean anything to 95% of the country and corporations have figured out they can make more money with less people. Why would they start hiring?

willam mcdonald

Fear not.

The elites have been very busy looking for a war opportunity abroad as
they still believe nothing cures a down economy better than a good war!

Of course, the fact that their kids won't have to fight is an inconvenient truth best left unsaid by those with good manners and breeding.

Did you see the oped in the New York Times today talking about the Chinese navy?

BJ

Our economy is 70% consumption driven, the only thing that will create jobs is more consumption, or the dollar becoming so devalued exports rise above imports. The housing bubble was a mega consumption bubble. Consider all the materials that went into building those homes, furnishing them, and the infrastructure to support them. There is also the government bubble, the creation of all those government jobs based on bubble driven revenues.

Even if we create 100-125 thousand jobs per month, that wont decrease the rate of unemployment, as they say our population is increasing at the rate of 150,000 per month. Unemployment would slowly rise, not go down.

After the 2001 recession, it took seven years for the manufacturing sector to recover, if my horrible memory serves me.

Can the consumer create demand when median household income is equal to what it was in 1997 (as of 2009), when gas prices are double what they were in 1997, and housing prices are still significantly above 1997? Now add in, gas prices are still climbing, taxes and fees are still going up, and payroll deductions will be going up. After the current round of stimulus, where will the money come from to drive the growth? The only option is more debt, and indeed, the current growth has been debt driven, and so with this year's growth. The government is going $850,000,000 in debt to stimulate the economy. Warm up those printing presses for QE3.

Chris, I own a small SUV that I would love to down size, but guess what, I can't afford to buy a fuel efficient vehicle. I can buy a ton of gasoline before I even begin to approach the monthly cost of a new vehicle, plus the insurance.

As far as switching over to cleaner forms of energy, the director of the National Renewable Energy Lab came right out and stated politicians were liars, that the switch is going to take trillions of dollars and decades. Here is the quote:

"Still, there's a gulf between what the politicians promise and what the engineers think is feasible. NREL director Dan Arvizu warns that the transformation must be driven by the private sector and will require trillions of dollars of investment over decades. "

http://www.newsweek.com/2009/06/26/more-than-just-hot-air.html

With the latest round of stimulus, politicians have pushed addressing the government debt issue out for a year, just in time for the 2012 election, meaning they will push it out at least another year. The only question is, can the dollar survive another year or two?

Morocco Bama

Not to mention that all those bubbles accomplished what they set out to accomplish......that being the exponential concentration of wealth. It certainly doesn't appear that there are any possible bubbles on the horizon, but if there are, these vampires will find a way to suck every last drop from their hosts.

Dr. C.

BJ: Surely you meant $850 billion ($850,000,000,000), not $850 million ($850,000,000) to stimulate the economy. These days $850 million would barely stimulate Uncle Sam's paper clip supply. The gov't went about two TRILLION ($2,000,000,000,000) dollars in the red last year with its various bailouts and stimulus and all it managed to get for it was holiday sales up a lousy 5% over 2009 (which was a retail disaster). Unemployment was unaffected. Two trillion for zero, zip, nada. If anything, unemployment ticked up a tenth.

When you look up clueless in the dictionary there are pictures of Bernanke, Obama & Geithner.

BJ

Dr. C: I accidentally dropped 3 zeros, thanks for pointing that out. When there is already $45,000 in public debt for every man woman and child in the US, what is another $2,800?

Bill

Alternative-energy-provided "green jobs" are simply not there, nor will they be at any significant scale. I just wrote about this briefly .. not to hype the site, but to back Dave's supposition to something already typed out... http://sustainablesweetwater.blogspot.com/2011/01/solar-get-big-or-get-out.html .. which refers to a post by the San Luis Valley coalition trying to make sense out of the mega-PV invasion of their area (which has no transmission lines to take the power to Denver). "Big solar" and 'big wind' are enjoying their own little bubbles right now, but solar won't power the country (still less than 1% of generation)... nor will solar and big wind ever employ enough people to use jobs as justification for them.

Brook

Hey, I just found your site the other day and look forward to reading it this year. I believe the great days of the empire are coming to an end, but it's not that close. I'll know it's over when we start closing bases in Korea, Germany and the middle east. Below are my thoughts on employment.

I think CR's number is not hard to achieve by any stretch. I believe there are 2.5 million eligible retirees this year and many of them will retire with Social Security Income, pensions and rejuvenated IRA's. Companies will hire to replace their retirees as the new employee will cost less than the retiree and have updated skills. The new employees will form households and want to buy houses from retirees. Something like 40% of Americans, many of them these new retirees, don't have a mortgage so they are not handcuffed and can sell at market prices or below.

Also, those 2.5 million eligible retirees will keep Uncle Sam consuming health care which has been the biggest growth area in consumption for something like 20 years. Is health care part of the service sector? If so, they make pretty good money. Heck, if they include RN's they make more than manufacturing guys.

Those are my thoughts on CR's employment numbers.

Morocco Bama

That may be the case, Brook, but then that's not "New" jobs...it's merely filling an existing job with another person.....for less pay, which further drives down wages.

I don't normally watch much television, and even when I do, I don't watch the MSN, but I caught this last night on CNBC. It actually wasn't half bad. It's a critical analysis about the student loan bubble, and resulting skyrocketing tuition, that's about to burst. Debt slaves from cradle to grave in the New Feudalism. My children are twelve and eight, respectively, and they are already receiving credit card offers. That's f....ed up, and very telling.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?play=1&video=1690303232

DaShui

3D CAD Printing could be the next big technology.

Gregor

This depression has been extremely effective and revealing a wide range of latent predilections among macro observers. I truly had no idea that CR was carrying around a very bad case of Normalcy Bias, but oh boy does he have it bad.

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