Checking In With Niall Ferguson

When people counter or cite arguments that the Empire is in decline, it's almost invariably Niall Ferguson they're talking about, not this blog

The Harvard historian is still out and about talking to various groups. Ferguson's main (and perhaps sole) argument is that our decline is (and will be) determined by our huge annual deficits and accumulated debt. While I am sympathetic to that viewpoint, in making it Ferguson leaves out all the other reasons why America is on the ropes: political corruption, the overly powerful Finance sector, the sad state of our education, our soaring health care costs, our crumbling infrastructure, our oil dependency, and so on.

On May 24 last year Ferguson gave the Ninth Annual Niarchos Lecture at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC. The talk is long, academic, and rather dry, so I will not embed it here. Ferguson begins his remarks at the 8:00 mark in the video, and you can find his slides here.

Today I'll show you a short version. At the beginning of this video, Ferguson says "even if I am wrong and my old rival Paul Krugman is right..." Not to worry, Krugman is listed as an examplar in the standard dictionary entry for the word wrong. I should add that Krugman believes that the United States will grow it's way out of any amount of debt accumulated now or in the medium-term, thus ignoring all the deplorable historical trends that got us to this terrible place in the first place. Economic growth for the True Believer is inevitable and timeless.

From his remarks, I'm not sure Ferguson fully grasps Krugman's delusions. For Krugman, enormous future GDP growth leads to a 20 trillion dollar economy (in real terms) in which revenues soar and interest on the debt is not a problem, as described in his Debt Is A Political Issue.

Enjoy.

 

Comments

[Dr. House]

Dave, I read your blog everyday and enjoy your insight. Today, you mentioned the rising costs of healthcare as part of the reason that the Empire is in decline. As a physician, I agree absolutely that the greed in the healthcare industry combined with the growing number of patients who refuse to take responsibility for their own health is definitely part of the problem. Rather than just complain about it, let me share with you and your readers what I'm attempting to do to counter the problem a little - however futile it might be ultimately. I'm setting up a barter-based clinic. Obviously, unless you live in my area it won't be anything you can take advantage of personally but I would love to know what you think about it. You can find out more on the webiste. http://www.healthbydrhouse.com.

Thanks!