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Bill Hicks

While your points are certainly valid, Martenson is not exactly way out on a limb with his statement. As your graph demonstrates, crude oil production has been essentially fluctuating in a range between 72 to 74 mbpd since 2004--going on 7 years now. A slight one month bump up above that range hardly indicates that we are on anything other than what Peak Oil theorists call the "undulating plateau" at the top of Hubbert's Peak.

You are probably right that Peak Oil will likely not reach crisis mode for about five more years. In fact, many Peak Oil writers, including the very astute Tom Whipple, have cited 2014 as the year the world may begin to see world oil production decline at the beginning of the back side of Hubbert's Peak. After that, it all depends on how fast we decline as to how bad the effects will be on the world economy.

But no matter what it won't be pretty.

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