Why build electric cars? That's a serious question, although I'm sure that almost everybody would proclaim that we must build them. But why? If your answer is that electric cars will mitigate global warming or reduce pollution, think again. These cars re-charge using electricity from conventional sources, which half the time means coal in the United States. About 50% of our electricity comes from coal-fired plants, so whether your electricity comes from other sources (natural gas, nuclear, hydro) depends on where you are. And despite what propagandists say, "clean coal" does not exist.
The only valid reason to build electric cars is to alleviate our dangerous dependence on oil. But if the cost of these cars is out of the reach of ordinary Americans, and for that and other reasons alternative cars can't attain significant market penetration until a few decades from now—10 million vehicles = ~4% of all vehicles on the road in the U.S.—then why bother building them at all? Yes, we should build them as an investment in the distant future, but let's not delude ourselves into thinking they're going to make a significant dent in our oil demand any time soon. I am referring to the scalability problem for electric vehicles.
If your goal is to reduce oil consumption, why not produce a shitload of bicycles, distribute them at little cost to the people, and build the urban/suburban infrastructure to support riding them (bike lanes, tighter living & working arrangements, etc)? That's what Howard Lindzon says we should do in the Tech Ticker video below, and he's right.
And then there is the third reason to build electric cars: as nifty toys for the rich. This was the obvious path pursued by Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors. The Department of Energy lent Tesla $465 million dollars to get the job done, and undoubtedly rationalized this as a fossil energy reduction move instead of another subsidy for the wealthy. Tesla recently unveiled its Model S, which sells for $49,900 after a $7,500 tax break.
The Tesla Model S. It is a scaled-down, "affordable" version of Tesla's Roadster
Tesla just went public to great fanfare, and Elon Musk managed to pocket $24,000,000. Saving the Earth and getting rich too! It's the new American Way—at least, it's Elon's way. I'm sure Tom Hanks has already put in his order for a brand new Model S—he can park it in his 7-car garage right next to the Roadster.
But what about the Chevy Volt? Unlike the Tesla, which has an all-electric drive, the Volt is a plug-in hybrid (PHEV), not a regular hybrid (HEV) like the Prius . Wasn't the Volt supposed to be available this year? Surely this car will be more affordable for ordinary Americans.
The Volt is due out at year's end, but you can forget about affordability. Is the Volt a mass market car? You be the judge—
In an effort to lure early adopters who might hesitate at dropping more than $30,000 on a mass-market electric car, General Motors said on Wednesday that it would guarantee the battery on its forthcoming Chevy Volt for eight years or 100,000 miles — better than the typical five-year or 100,000-mile warranty it typically offers for the powertrain on its conventional cars...
The Volt is expected to be available for retail sale in four markets — California, the District of Columbia, the New York City metropolitan area and Austin, Tex. — by the end of the year, with availability in all 50 states aimed for 12 to 15 months after that.
G.M. said this month that it planned to produce 10,000 Volts by the end of next year, with an additional 30,000 cars planned for 2012.
The official retail price for the Volt — which has an advertised range of up to 40 miles on a single charge, plus a gasoline-assisted “range extender” feature — has not yet been announced, but estimates are in the range of $35,000 to $40,000. Federal tax credits are likely to shave off several thousand dollars for many buyers.
The Nissan Leaf, a fully electric car with a marketed range of up to 100 miles per charge, will retail for just under $33,000, and the same credits could help.
No doubt large tax credits for the Volt and Nissan's Leaf will be forthcoming, but you can easily see that it will take a decade or more to get a million PHEVs or all-electric cars on the road in the United States. If you're serious about our oil problem, ride a bike. Where are the bicycle subsidies?
Cars of any sort make people ill. Social isolation, lack of exercise and contact with their neighbours, lack of integrated neighbourhoods. All a bad deal.
Posted by: Edward Boyle | 07/15/2010 at 10:19 AM