Perhaps you've noticed that a Big Issue is missing from the news lately. There was a time a few years ago when it was all global warming all the time on National Public Radio. The issue was hot! I thought I would check in with the Senate to see where the latest climate initiative stands.
The Senate version of the House bill is the American Power Act (big pdf) sponsored by John Kerry (D, Ma) and Joe Lieberman (I, Conn). This bill is now dead in the water according to the New York Times—
Senate Democrats may have emerged from their much-hyped caucus meeting without a clear plan for this summer's energy bill, but they appeared to agree on one point: Cap and trade doesn't have the votes.
Several senators say the chamber is unlikely to pass a measure that sets a price on carbon emissions this year, despite President Obama's support for such an approach and a push from many Democrats who say pricing carbon is needed to stop the adverse effects of climate change.
"I don't see 60 votes for a price on carbon right now," Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) said yesterday.
I am particularly pleased with the way Lindsey Graham (R, SC) described the stalemate—
A coalition of 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster is not yet in sight. In the words of Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a Republican who worked on a climate change bill for months before pronouncing it hopeless, “There’s nowhere near 60 votes to save the polar bear.”
Not Enough Votes
The Democrats believe they may be able to get an energy bill passed this summer, but with midterm elections just on the horizon, climate intiatives are very likely dead for the rest of Obama's first term. Bernie Sanders (I,Vt) is distraught—
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), an ardent supporter of setting carbon limits, said he does not think the Senate can get 60 votes this year on a "strong" climate bill.
"For a variety of reasons, with virtually no Republicans supporting us, it would mean that every Democrat has to step up to the plate," Sanders said yesterday. "Do I think we have 60 votes to come up with strong global warming legislation? No. I think that's a tragedy, but that's the way it is."
Yes, Bernie, that's the way it is. But something will always turn up which defeats forward progress on climate or anything else.
Let me repeat some text from my March 12th article Which Train Is Leaving The Station? Secretary of Energy Steven Chu had told the assembled oil & gas people at CERAWeek that "time is running out and the train is leaving the station," to which I replied—
I certainly agree that time is running out. Or has run out. But what does Chu mean when he says that? And when Chu says the train is leaving the station, I'm wondering which train he is referring to. It appears from the quote that Steven means the so-called "cleantech" train. I can think of other trains that have left the station, or soon will. (Not counting the "get a clue" train, of course!)
- the cheap oil train left the station sometime in 2005
- the U.S. domestic oil production train left the station in 1970
- the global "peak oil" production train will leave the station in 2012, ±4 years
- the climate mitigation train left the station sometime around 2005, ±5 years
Some of you may question my date assessments—U.S. peak oil production excepted—but we would only be arguing about a few years either way, which is an insignificant amount of time in the Grand Scheme of Things... All these dates will be known with greater precision sometime in the future—in the "rear view mirror" as it were.
The climate train has left the station—we will not avoid a surface temperature rise of at least 2°C. By the years 2015-16, CO2 in the atmosphere will reach 400 parts-per-million (ppm). Researchers will continue to work out the science as long as the funding holds out. Some scientists will promote foolhardy geoengineering solutions to replace human inaction. Climate scientist-turned-activist James Hansen will get more and more frustrated. Despite some possible twists & turns, the Earth's surface will warm a bit every year from here on out. More ice will melt each year, the oceans will get a little bit warmer.
Our Fate now depends on a roll of the dice. "The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks"—Dr. Wallace Broecker.
The climate issue created a thriving industry of activists, lobbyists, and think-tankers Inside The Beltway over the last several years. White papers were written, data was cited, meetings were held, Congressional offices were visited. All this well-funded activity created lots of jobs and angst. What did all this sophisticated huffing & puffing accomplish? Nothing.
The climate industry is now, like so many others in America, winding down. It will live on in one form or another for years to come—Joe Romm will still write his blog—but the Magic Moment when change is possible has come & gone, never to return. Memo to Senator Bernie Sanders: that's the way it is, and that's the way it always will be.
All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players:
They have their exits and their entrances;
And one man in his time plays many parts
—William Shakespeare, from As You Like It
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