French Revolution Redux?

In On the brink of a new age of rage historian Simon Schama, a student of the French Revolution, raises the possibility of a new revolt in Europe and America (Financial Times, May 21, 2010, subscription or registration required).

Far be it for me to make a dicey situation dicier but you can’t smell the sulphur in the air right now and not think we might be on the threshold of an age of rage. The Spanish unions have postponed a general strike; the bloody barricades and the red shirts might have been in Bangkok not Berlin; and, for the moment, the British coalition leaders sit side by side on the front bench like honeymooners canoodling on the porch; but in Europe and America there is a distinct possibility of a long hot summer of social umbrage. Historians will tell you there is often a time-lag between the onset of economic disaster and the accumulation of social fury. In act one, the shock of a crisis initially triggers fearful disorientation; the rush for political saviours; instinctive responses of self-protection, but not the organized mobilization of outrage. Whether in 1789 or now, an incoming regime riding the storm gets a fleeting moment to try to contain calamity. If it is seen to be straining every muscle to put things right it can, for a while, generate provisional legitimacy...

So we face a tinderbox moment:, a test of the strength of democratic institutions in a time of extreme fiscal stress...

The same kind of pre-lapsarian romanticism targeted at an elitist federal authority is raging through the US like a fever. The best way to understand the Tea Party, which has just scored its first victory with the libertarian Rand Paul defeating the choice of the official Republican party, is to see it as akin to the Great Awakenings and the Populist furies of the end of the 19th century. There are calls to abolish the Federal Reserve or in some cases Social Security, fuelled by the conspiratorial belief that it was an excess, not a deficit, of government regulation that brought on the financial meltdown. Claims that Washington has been captured for socialism are preached on rightwing talk radio as gospel truth. As they did in the 1930s with Father Coughlin, the radio demonisers are pitch-perfect orchestrators of hatred for listeners in bewildered economic distress...

This reminds me of Gerald Celente's "Greatest Depression" prediction for 2010, which I wrote about in March—

... when Celente says the "greatest" depression, the claim is that we should prepare for a shitstorm worse than the worst years of the Great Depression in the early 1930s. Several lines of evidence (e.g. the housing market, unemployment) point to no recovery or gradually worsening conditions. However, it appears that Celente is talking about an actual collapse leading to a breakdown in social order.

The fiscal crisis in Europe and the impending collapse of China's bubbles make the situation far more precarious than I thought it was back in March. I did not agree with Celente—and still don't—that a breakdown in social order, particularly here in the United States, was likely in 2010, but Schama seems to broach that possibility. It is easy to see why Americans would want to revolt. Consider this graph (ht, Yves Smith) from Kate Pickett's presentation to the recent INET conference.

The result of Cowboy Capitalism — this outrageous situation speaks for itself

Here's a quote from Yves Smith's article—

Having weakened faith in government and made considerable progress towards creating a social Darwinist paradise of isolated individuals pitted against each other, the [American] oligarchs may be about to harvest a whirlwind

I don't think America's elites will be reaping the whirlwind any time soon, but her sentiment is entirely correct. My analogy for our social Darwinist paradise compares our situation to a giant game of Survivor—it's every man for himself in the good ole' U.S. of A. This "competition" creates a few rich, powerful people (the "elites") and a shitload of poor, powerless people (the "little people" or hoi polloi).

I think American citizens have internalized this social Darwinist lesson, i.e. they believe it themselves. They actually believe—have been encouraged to believe—a society should work this way, a story which is quite insane. Moreover, Americans have been beaten down for far too long to stage a revolt. They are thoroughly domesticated. No matter how unjust & unhealthy our society becomes during the waning days of the Empire, as shown in the graph above, it remains unrealistic to expect a French Revolution in America.

Comments

[matt]

Nice article. I would agree that at least for the time being (next 10-20 years at least) we're not going to have a revolution.
What I think is going to happen is more and more people are going to wake up from the reality tv and celeb stalking (as Chris mentions) and decide they don't want to play anymore in the overall economy because the rules just suck. More people moving back to simpler times - growing more of their own food, having less "stuff"/less consumerism and more self-sufficiency.
What happens from there I don't know - how will the government (and more importantly Wall St) react to people taking themselves out of the overall economy into a more micro-economy? If there's an attempt to "force" people into the big economy again then that's where I see a revolution coming in.
Just my two random cents - keep up the great blog!