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John Hemington

Nailed it!



Washington considers a decline of world oil production as of 2011 -
The U.S. Department of Energy admits that “a chance exists that we may experience a decline” of world liquid fuels production between 2011 and 2015 “if the investment is not there”, according to an exclusive interview with Glen Sweetnam, main official expert on oil market in the Obama administration.


http://www.eia.doe.gov/conference/2009/session3/Sweetnam.pdf (see page 8)


The Pentagon also expects an imminent oil shock - A report from the American Joint Forces Command published March 15 predicts that in 2015, the world capacity for petroleum prouction could be 10 million barrels per day less than the demand. The report of the American Department of Defense (DoD), titled Joint Operating Environemnt 2010 indicates (page 29):"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015. the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD." 10 million barrels per day (MBD), that represents the production of Saudi Arabia, the world's leading petroleum producer. Such a shortfall, if it should come, would be more than 10 percent of the world demand for crude, which is today 86.5 MBD, and ought to reach 90 MBD in 2015.

joint operating environment pdf: http://www.fas.org/man/eprint/joe2010.pdf


Although I think you are right, HAVE the government programs been "ever more desperate"? It seems to me that the government effort is trailing off.

Also, the US population finally dipped below replacement levels in 2008, a very good development sustainability-wise, but one that will upset many calculations. How does that figure in?

Suburbia is still a-building where I live. New developments coming on line, and new requests to the planning board for subdivisions. Not at the same pace, certainly.

Decline can be slow AND fast, at least linearly. That is, it can be slow for a while and then fast, very fast.

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