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a couple of things play on retail sales: the number of people not making mortage payments, 7.9 million (10.2% of all mortgages), who are using that freed up cash at walmart, quantified here: http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2010:03:02-quantifying_the_stimulus_effect_of_missed_mortgage_payments
and the excess amount of tax refund checks, quantified here:

even with that, the reported retail sales are far greater than what you'd expect to see reflected in sales tax returns:
...what I've been catching in my peripheral vision over the past year has been a disconnect between what I've seen in the occasional state sales tax reports I link to and the retail sales i see reported monthly...

Links for the above are in my comments on my post: http://marketwatch666.blogspot.com/2010/04/go-figure.html

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