Most people in the developed world—many of them are economists—do not understand what exponential growth means over the long run. This is ironic in light of the fact that they use exponential functions to model the economy every day. I think this video explains what they're missing very nicely.
Read Economic growth [is] no longer possible for rich countries. Well, that may be somebody's idealistic view of what needs to happen to avoid future catastrophes, but very few people are going to take such a view seriously. The global economy will continue to grow until at some future time in the 21st century ... it can't, due to lack of sufficient energy inputs, anthropogenic climate change, lack of fresh water, fished-out oceans, an ongoing mass extinction, etc. ... or some lethal combination of these. One thing won't change: there will be still be very well-off people who can afford to gobble up the remaining resources.
If you're really feeling ambitious, read this press release about Tim Garrett's work.
A University of Utah scientist argues that rising carbon dioxide emissions – the major cause of global warming – cannot be stabilized unless the world’s economy collapses or society builds the equivalent of one new nuclear power plant each day.
“It looks unlikely that there will be any substantial near-term departure from recently observed acceleration in carbon dioxide emission rates,” says the new paper by Tim Garrett, an associate professor of atmospheric sciences.Garrett’s study was accepted for publication by Climatic Change, a journal edited by Stanford University climate scientist Stephen Schneider. The paper is scheduled to be published is online...
Garrett says colleagues generally support his theory, while some economists are critical. One economist, who reviewed the study, wrote: “I am afraid the author will need to study harder before he can contribute.”
“I’m not an economist, and I am approaching the economy as a physics problem,” Garrett says. “I end up with a global economic growth model different than they have.”
He treats civilization like a “heat engine” that “consumes energy and does ‘work’ in the form of economic production, which then spurs it to consume more energy,” he says.
If you're in your twenties or younger, I believe you'll see the End Of Growth in your lifetime. And maybe if you're in your thirties. Or forties. I am pretty pessimistic about all this. Sorry about passing on the bad news. If only we had two Earths ... but clearly we only have one.
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