Decline of the Empire

Humans Don't Understand Models Because Of Course They Don't

The grim news out of the White House today is that Dr. Fauci and therefore President Trump expect between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in an unspecified time frame due to COVID-19 (aka., the Wuhan Flu, the Kung Flu, or the Chinese Virus).

This number is based on a model. A model makes assumptions about (assigns values to) relevant variables X₁, X₂, ... , X_n, and plugs those variables into some equations to make a predictions about outcomes, in this case the estimated deaths which will be caused by the Kung Flu.

Simplifying, those equations are the model. (For grisly details, read here.) Using different values for variables X_i, you get different models runs. For each model run, it is those assumptions about values that really count. One model run is particularly important. It is the worst case based on worst case assumptions.

Humans who don't use models to make predictions don't understand any of this because of course they don't. So the default assumption is that if the model says 100,000 (or maybe 240,000) people are gonna die in the worst case, then we must prepare ourselves for the grim reality that 100,000 (or maybe 240,000) people are gonna die.

The worst case model run has now been given the status of an omniscient God. 

We can find some insight into all this in the NPR story Models Of Epidemic Predict Huge U.S. Death Toll; Scientists Hope For Better Outcome (March 31, 2020, yesterday, emphasis added).

The models – in particular, a model developed by Chris Murray, at the University of Washington – assume that the future of the epidemic will play out much like the recent past, Birx said. "If you ask Chris Murray, he would say he's using the information coming out of New York and New Jersey and applying that to potentially other states having the same outcomes."

Got it? Murray assumed in one model run that everywhere in the country becomes just like New York City and New Jersey. That was presumably the worst case model run. That's the 100,000 to 240,000 deaths case.

Birx is hoping that New York and New Jersey turn out to be unusual. Some states, like Washington and California, have managed to avoid the spikes in coronavirus infections that overwhelmed New York City. If other states manage to duplicate that experience, it would change the model's assumptions about the epidemic's trajectory.

So we already know that the worst case is not happening in places like California or Washington state, which was initially hard hit. Or anywhere else outside of New Orleans as far as we know. So, mitigation efforts do in fact work, especially in areas which are not as densely populated as New York City and New Jersey.

Why is the worst case being put forward as the outcome we can expect? What the fuck?

Now, it is perfectly OK and necessary—it is standard procedure—to model the worst case outcome. What is not OK is to publicly air only that worst case outcome. Doing so means that this worst case estimate quickly becomes set in stone, regardless of how realistic that outcome seems to be. And so general perceptions of the threat level rise, and so does the general fear and hysteria.

This has the effect of terrifying the shit out of already terrified people. Portraying the worst case as the most realistic possibility also makes fearful people far less willing to question the wisdom of the extremely destructive policies which have been put into place. This framing also makes Those In Charge look good when what was unrealistic to begin with never comes to pass.

And so the Wuhan Flu hysteria marches on.

OK, It'll Be Fine!

I relent.

I mean, everybody knows that humans behave admirably and with great restraint when confronted with extreme resource scarcity. They don't kill each other over toilet paper or egg rolls or anything like that.

Everybody knows that humans confronted with multiple existential threats will just sit passively waiting to be saved or waiting to die, whichever comes first.

Ask any evolutionary biologist — there's nothing to worry about here!

I mean, what could go wrong? We didn't need global civilization anyway. 

I mean, c',mon — we're not animals, right? It'll be fine!

With this exuberant C'ant Do Can Do Spirit, listen to this week's Spiked podcast.

Some States Now Committing Suicide, Dooming Citizens To Die?

Enlightened California Governor Gavin Newsome just ordered all state residents to sequester themselves until April 19th, which is 30 days from now. They can leave the house for food and drugs. That is, until they die of starvation well before that date in millions of cases because working people living paycheck to paycheck are no longer receiving a paycheck.

These are working Americans. They've been fucked over by neo-liberal globalist elites for 40 years now! They don't have any god-damned savings.

And I guarantee you families can easily starve to death well before the Federal Government manages to send them a paltry $1000 or whatever it will turn out to be. By that point sometime in April they will probably be too weak to cash the fucking check.

This will not end well, I fucking guarantee it. If your kids were starving, what would you do?

Thinking about that question—actual thought is a rare commodity these days—the better question is what wouldn't you do?

In one story about this catastrophe, the key paragraph appeared somewhere in the middle—

Newsom said he made the decision “based upon some new information” and projections that came in from Johns Hopkins University.

This is what happens when you let hysterical health care ego-maniacs run your economy as they bask in their 15 minutes (weeks?) of fame. More on this in the 2nd video below.

First, Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti of The Hill explain what the fuck I'm talking about (skip the fluff, start 45 seconds in).

I think you get the picture.

I was only able to watch the first 40 seconds of the video below before I went in search of a bucket to throw up in. This is Dave Rubin interviewing unhinged Dr. Nicholas Christakis (Harvard, M.P.H., Public Health; M.D). Watch as long as you can stomach it.

If you heard those first 40 seconds, you heard incoherent gibberish. He starts from the premise that 100,000 people are going to die altogether, in the next month or during the next year.  The number 100,000 is used for the sake of argument.

Then he asserts that it is somehow much better (for whom?) if they die over the next year rather than in the first month. Of course, if they die in the next year instead of the first month, to facilitate that outcome, we'll have to commit economic suicide like California has. That's what clueless assholes like Christakis are recommending.

Then he contradicts himself by saying that "many more" people will die than would have died if the hospitals are overwhelmed in the next month. Huh? I thought you said 100,000 will die altogether regardless. So, if 100,000 die in the next month, then more than 100,000 altogether will die in the next year?

Which is it, fuckhead?

OK, I made myself watch some more. After the 4:00 minute mark, the unhinged Harvard asshole opines that if we push the mortality (death) curve into the future by "social distancing" now and making everyone stay home without a paycheck, then maybe only 90,000 people will die over the next year instead of 100,000.

Gee, that should make everyone feel so much better! Pennsylvania, where I live, has implemented the same policy that California has. Other states will no doubt commit economic suicide as well

(Update — New York and Illinois follow California's lead)

All we need do to achieve the miraculous outcome Christakis wants is to put maybe 100 million people (including millions and millions of children) at risk of dying in some other way.

Are you feeling reassured? I know I am.

Self-Defeating Fuck-Ups — Part II

By now you've probably heard the term — social distancing. In short, the call is for humans to isolate themselves from others to prevent an exponential rise in COVID-19 cases.

What's the quickest way to drive a human crazy? Well, one of the fastest, most effective ways is to put them in solitary confinement.  As I've stressed in the past, humans are social animals. With the exception of true introverts like me, humans thrive around other people. Humans get energy from social interactions. If those interactions are cut off, humans become angry. If they are helpless and thus can not fix the problem, they become depressed and despondent, which often serves to mask their anger. Sorry, that's just the way it is.

But wait, there's more. I'll use my local situation as an example. I'm in Pittsburgh. It's pretty typical of what's happening in the United States.

Can I go to a movie? Nope. The theatres are closed by state decree.

Can I go to my local bar? Nope. All the bars are closed by state decree.

Can I go out to eat? Nope. All the restaurants are closed by state decree.

Can I go out to hear some music? Nope. All such venues are closed by state decree.

Can I go to see a hockey or basketball game? Or watch one on TV? Nope, the NHL and NBA have suspended play.

Can I go anywhere outside the house to be around other people? Nope, unless it's a gathering of less than 10 as decreed by the state.

Can I at least go to a liquor store to buy some wine and drink it at home to let off some steam? Nope, the state-controlled liquor stores are closed by state decree.

Now, if you combine stressful social isolation with the cutting off of nearly all modes of socializing or the standard modes of coping to ease life's pain, what do you think is going to happen?

Here's what I think is going to happen: the big brains of a lot these stressed out humans are going to go haywire. And lots of those humans own guns here in the United States. There's been a run at the grocery stores on bottled water, toilet paper and other paper products, canned goods and frozen vegetables. At Walmart and other big box retailers, there's also been a large run on guns.

And the longer this goes on, the greater the chances that people's big brains will go haywire. Sorry, but that's just how humans work.

Well, Dave, you might say, most humans don't live alone like you do. They have roommates and family around them. Yes, that's right, but the truth is that humans living in close proximity with other humans is always a tenuous and potentially dangerous situation which is only mediated and made tolerable by access to social or work opportunities outside the small group (outside the house).

And if you add the stress of forced unemployment, which perhaps 20% of working Americans are looking at right now, and cut off every social or work opportunity which allows them to get through life, then the probability of emotional or physical violence skyrockets.

You would think that the so-called medical experts who seem to be driving state and national policy would understand something as basic as mental health.

But they don't.

Self-Defeating Fuck-Ups

Unless you're comatose, you know that the world is looking at a COVID-19 epidemic (coronavirus, Wuhan Flu, etc.).

Over the last 2 weeks in the United States, having done too little too late to prepare for the inevitable arrival of the virus, the instinctual response has been as expected — total panic and overreaction.

Most Americans (including me) are hunkered down "sheltering in place" or enduring forced unemployment. The most expert opinion I've found states that COVID-19 has at most a 0.6% mortality rate (here, after the 8:00 mark). The elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions are the most vulnerable. The large majority of people will have mild symptoms or no symptoms.

You've probably heard all sorts of hysterical estimates about the mortality rate — 3%, 4%, 7% and so on. Humans and Reality are permanently estranged and always have been.

Everyone is being urged to stay home because health care experts have told our wise political leaders that the health care system may get overwhelmed by a flood of new COVID-19 sufferers, most of whom would recover if they get the hospital care they need. If the hospitals have to turn people away because they've run out of space, some of those victims will die. In that case the mortality rate will creep up. Nobody prepared for this in advance of course. The idea is to "bend" (flatten) the new case curve so it doesn't go exponential. This will allow the hospitals to keep up with acute reactions to the virus.

Humans are self-defeating fuck-ups in this particular case because here in America and in Europe and elsewhere, humans are destroying the global economy in response to COVID-19. Their already compromised minds are overloaded. This invisible and therefore ever-present virus is construed as the only threat of any real importance now.  They've got self-defeating tunnel vision. Ironically, it seems that anything or anyone can be sacrificed in the name of fighting COVID-19.

But by and large, the virus is not an existential threat to the vast majority of humans. For that vast majority, the existential threat here is the destruction of working people's livelihoods and the longer-term demand destruction which will follow.  The hysterical response includes the ongoing crash of the stock market and the growing insolvency of the banks, which no longer have cash reserves requirements. The credit markets are imploding.

Can you say Déjà vu?

It took 10 years to recover from the crash of the global economy in 2008, but the crash we're seeing now may be much worse. It is certainly happening faster. I hope it isn't worse, but the longer the COVID-19 panic goes on, the worse the consequences will be and the longer the terrible effects will go on.

In the end of course, if the economy is well and truly fucked over the longer term, only the Big Money Boys will get bailed out just like the last time we went through this kind of human-created disaster.

In so far as virtually nobody is saying any of this because of that tunnel vision I spoke of earlier, I thought you might like to know what your future may look like.

Post-Script — when GDP falls by 4-5%, carbon emissions will go way down! What was it the guy nailed to the cross said? Always look on the bright side of life...

We Are Living In Hell

I haven't said anything for a long while now and nobody reads here anyway. As far as I'm concerned, this post's title says it all.

Perhaps you have heard of Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS)? I'm guessing about 45% of those living in the U.S. have this awful disease for which there is no known cure, at least as long as Trump is in the White House. What is this disease? According to Wikipedia it is

... a term for criticism or negative reactions to United States President Donald Trump that are alleged to be irrational and have little regard towards Trump's actual positions or actions taken. The term has been used by Trump supporters to discredit criticism of his actions, as a way of reframing the discussion by suggesting that his opponents are incapable of accurately perceiving the world...

Alleged to be irrational? Alleged? Suggesting that Trump's opponents are incapable of accurately perceiving the world? Suggesting?

Here's how you can spot TDS. A person has this incurable psychological condition if he or she believes that —

1. every problem plaguing humankind originated with Donald Trump. When Trump is gone, all our problems will be solved (including climate change, for example).
2. Donald Trump is a racist/misogynist/homophobic/islamophobic Nazi who would kill and eat Mexican babies if "good" people didn't stand in his way (just ask Bernie Sanders, for example).
3. Donald Trump poses a constant threat to our Democracy and yearns to be God-Emperor of the America and The Whole World.

Watch out — pointing out astonishingly inaccurate perceptions of Donald Trump and conservatives to those who have TDS makes you a baby-eating Nazi too.

Here in Pittsburgh I can not talk about politics or Trump at all because Pittsburgh is full of TDS sufferers who get very angry with me if I don't subscribe to propositions 1) through 3) above. These people become .... uhhh .... threateningly irrational, and not allegedly since I'm seeing it right in front of me with my own eyes.

Ironically, all the actual threats to our democracy are coming from staggeringly dishonest authoritarian establishment assholes whose purely self-interested derangement gives the word 'immoral' a whole new meaning (the DNC, the MSM, the social media corporations, the "deep state"/Democrat dickheads behind that impeachment farce, etc. CNN is should be re-named the TDS Network.

There it is — We are living in Hell.

BTW, who thought making an online encyclopedia (Wikipedia) that just about any Flatland idiot can edit was a really good idea?

Jesus Wept.

This video will further your understanding of Trump Derangement Syndrome and make you laugh, but only if you don't actually have TDS yourself. If you do have TDS, you won't understand the video and you certainly won't find it funny. Those with TDS have absolutely no sense of humor.

Well, I'm off to read some advanced feminist/intersectional/marxist theory now...

Democracy Restored In The U.K.

Oh, happy day. Now it's time to crush pro-war globalist elites trying to subvert democracy in the United States.

How's That Democracy/Bill of Rights Thing Going?

I've already given up on Homo sapiens but you almost certainly have not.

If you still give a shit, if only to protect yourself and your family, you need to understand that if you want to keep what's left of our democracy and your constitutionally guaranteed rights, you will need to push back on what's going on in Washington in 2019. The elites who run this country are totally corrupt. They will sacrifice anything and anyone to get what they want. The worst of their political representatives is Democrat Adam Schiff of California's 28th district. He's been running the impeachment farce.

Trust me on this one —  Adam Schiff is the most ruthless, unprincipled politician I've ever seen. I was a toddler when Senator Joseph McCarthy was witch-hunting communists in the early fifties (1950-1954, 2nd video below). McCarthy was an evil man. The bad news is that he's the only apt comparison to Schiff I've got. Not even Nixon reached this level of corruption, although Nixon was clearly a scumbag.

Regarding Schiff, see the 1st video below.

Like McCarthy, Schiff is an power-obsessed lunatic, a classic demagogue. He's a very, very dangerous man. Trump's crazy in that peculiar way of his, but he's nowhere near as dangerous as Schiff. And of course the mainstream media (CNN, MSNBC, etc.) are complicit in Schiff's over-the-top attempt to destroy our political system. If these evil cocksuckers get away with this, the end is nigh.

In case you've never heard of Joseph McCarthy

So, How's That Attempted Coup Thing Going?

Life, The Universe And Everything

Were I to leave the house this morning, I would have a choice to make. I could go left or I could go right. As it turns out, this is no choice at all according to House speaker Nancy Pelosi because

"I also pointed out to the President that I had concerns that all roads seem to lead to Putin..."

All roads lead here ...

'

In her role as speaker the house, Nancy Pelosi is third in line for the presidency of the United States. This makes her one of the most powerful people on Earth.

In contemplating the meaning of life, the universe and everything, your role on this planet and especially the viability of our species going forward, I humbly ask you to meditate at some length on Pelosi's simple summation of our current political situation—all roads lead to Putin.

In this way, you may find the answers you seek.