« The "New Normal" Was Never Normal | Main | Archimedes' Lever »

08/27/2015

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

US PATRIOT

Meh, market will continue to go up and the economy will continue to print positive GDP prints. Unemployment claims are near historic lows. Laughable that the doomers were expecting a market crash.

Robert

Do people who make proclamations that civilization is going to collapse within two years care anything about the influence they have over their audience? We saw the one guy freaking out in the last comments section. What if he makes drastic life decisions over what is little more than a prediction?

I know we need to be responsible for our own actions and how we come to conclusions, but I think it's irresponsible for those who knows they have influence over people to make such drastic statements.

Maybe I'm wrong.

Dave Cohen

@Robert

You're not wrong.

-- Dave

meat wad

There was this good quote that came from a comment on a "doomer" blog, something to the effect of "The mind easily leaps ahead to the conclusion once it sees the pattern, but physical and human events never unfold so quickly." I'd also add it's never a straight line from A to B, with an impossible number of variables coming to bear.

A lot of the doomer crowd are on in their years too, so consider the subconscious desire to see things play out and be validated.

So those are a few reasons I think they can be so wrong with (a) the timing and (b) the magnitude of events.

Personally I think the story can be seen more clearly on the energy side than the economy side. Energy is also impossibly hard to predict given (a) technological developments and (b) economic [mal?]investment. And it's even hard to understand at any given moment with the volatility of prices and supply of late. But who knows into what strange territory fiscal, monetary, and economic policy may wander.

It's only natural that the elites will do everything in their power to shore up the status quo, and we hoomans are a resourceful bunch.

JRob

"A lot of the doomer crowd are on in their years too, so consider the subconscious desire to see things play out and be validated."

Which I thinks further fucks with young people encountering these topics. You tend to assume that older, experienced people know better than you. They are likely to hold more expertise in a given topic than you. They throw out charts and jargon that you don't have a full understanding of. You are likely at a time in your life when you are making big decisions about your future and are unsure of your intuitions.

It fucks with your head big time if you have a certain kind of personality or bias. I know it did for me. I got into this stuff at a fairly young age and made some life decisions I deeply regret based on listening to doomers telling me that the end was right around the corner.

I have a particular contempt for that crowd, and I totally get why Dave feels the way he does about them.

Ken Barrows

It would be much simpler if L Summers said that our economic way of life can only persist if debt expands more quickly than "growth." Hence, zero percent rates until there is a miracle.

Alexander Ac

US PATRIOT,

what is your point being here?

Summers is flatland full steam ahead. "Normal growth", "normal interest rate", "flush with cash"... well, all of this was normal, not anymore... but who cares?

Well, a great subsection of Flatland is Fedland :)

Alex

The comments to this entry are closed.