« The Global Minsky Moment — A Longer View | Main | The U.S. Economy Sucks, So Don't Raise Interest Rates »

08/26/2015

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Jack

The problem with too much debt is not enough debt. Or something. Margin calls? You're losing too much money so you better put up more money so WE don't lose any more money. I have,(way)in the past faced margin calls. Panic city, and please don't tell my wife.
Give me a hamburger today, and I'll pay you Tuesday.
The eclectic skeptic.
J

Ken Barrows

Any supporter of the status quo will tell you that the only road to wealth is more debt. They haven't explained why that can continue forever, but never mind.

Nathan

Okay. I'm kind of in a panic right now. Is this "it"?

Gail Tverberg is saying no electricity in two years and population under 200 million by 2050. How's that even possible?

Is it time to make peace with my and my family's imminent demise?

Shit. I'm ready to have a full blown anxiety attack.

Dave Cohen

@Nathan

Whoa, guy!

Gail Tverberg always says no electricity in 2 years and there's a big die-off coming.

You can panic maybe if your pension fund is going up in smoke. Eventually some of this unraveling will reach the "real economy" where you and me live. Most of the big damage is going to happen in China, not here in America.

Otherwise, relax and enjoy the ride. There's a big difference between pointing out the failures of global central bank policy and predicting the end of the world.

Maybe I'll post about the usual doomer bullshit tomorrow.

best,

-- Dave

Dave Cohen

Hell, the stock market rallied today.

After today comes tomorrow :-)

-- Dave

Nathan

"Gail Tverberg always says no electricity in 2 years and there's a big die-off coming."

Yeah, but that doesn't mean she's wrong this time. Her forecasts have been shockingly accurate this year, and she has the data to back it up.

Her latest article shows that we're screwed in short order.

Dave Cohen

@Nathan

You are now officially hopeless.

Go ahead and panic for no reason. That's what you're psychologically inclined to do anyway.

That is, Flatland exists, and you live there. As far as Gail Tverberg is concerned, she couldn't find her ass with either hand, know what I mean? It's interesting to note that she's Jim Kuntsler's go-to person with respect to Doomerism.

I'm really tired of responding to humans who are totally incompetent with respect to risk, as almost all humans are. I wrote about this in my Flatland essays.

I probably shouldn't write DOTE anymore because all I get is bat-shit crazy responses like yours.

What a joke the human condition is! And you, Nathan -- you are so typical -- you are THE JOKE. Could human beings be more fucked up?

Seriously, I doubt it. It's hard to imagine. Humans are so fucked up as it is. The problem is, Nathan, that you are totally incapable of understanding what is happening around you. Read the Wall Street Journal for chrissakes! That at least would be a start.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-world-struggles-to-adjust-to-chinas-new-normal-144055293

Don't worry about it -- nearly all humans are incompetent in the same way as you are, that's the human condition.

-- Dave

Nathan

Your personal grudges and labels don't change the reality of the situation. You've offered nothing to refute her conclusions other than personal attacks.

People are also psychologically inclined to think that bad things are always in the distant future.

David Laskaris

Dave, not all of your readers are "batshit crazy." I for one appreciate your candor and gloves off, no bullshit approach to explaining these trying times. You keep publishing your blog and I'll keep reading it. Keep up the good work!!!

Alexan der Ac

Hello all,

I think the only thing is normal that vast majority of human lemmings have no idea what is going and why.

Lets call it First Flatland Rule.

What would be the second rule? Ideas?

Alex

Jeremiah

@Dave

Please don't stop posting. Your blog really are an oasis in this sea of turmoil. A lot of people are going to be reactionary and scared when someone they view as an authority starts telling to to panic.

Don't bother responding to the hysterical doomers that find their way here. Delete and we'll move on with the discussion.

T e Cho

Dave and everyone.

What is debt that never needs to be paid back. Some special people can borrow money for free and use it to buy govt bonds which yield 3% interest. Effectively amounting to a gift.

So the official word is there's no inflation. Well there's celebrated inflation in stock prices,no? It's only the stuff that the little people make and buy and and work towards supposedly not going up in cost or value. There no inflation in wages of the grunts.

Money is the only functional mass hallucination Known. If everyone did not believe that little pieces of special paper and magnetic bits deep in computers were worth so much... Everything would crash overnight.

US PATRIOT

Dave:

Massive rally yesterday and a strong rally today. Sad to say but this correction was a head fake to get the bears and doomers all riled up so they can get fleeced. It is back to business as usual, and if you are increasing your posting because of the perception that SHTF, then you can go back to sleep now.

Sam Taylor

Nathan,

There are plenty of holes in Tverberg's logic. For one, she uses the fact that a fourier series can be used to produce a square wave to argue that oil production can go down off a cliff. This is completely erroneous, as oil wells can only ever produce *positive* output, while fourier series work by summing positive and negative compnoents of sine waves of different phases. This argument has no basis in physical reality, and is preposterous.

She seems to think that the oil price collapse was caused by some kind of systemic deflation, wheras in fact it's mostly oversupply from shale which caused the price drop. Chinese, and world, oil consumption is still growing, as is miles driven in the USA once again. The linkage of QE to the oil price is tenuous at best, as there's no real transmission mechanism that I'm aware of.

She is also, I think, somewhat guilty of underestimating the resilience of the global economic system. The fact that it managed to pull through a debt crisis and a decade of stagnant oil supply without collapsing should indicate that it has at least some stabilising capabilities. Yes the cheap oil might have mostly gone, but the more expensive stuff drives people's cars adequately. And we've barely scratched the surface of climate change and the effects of environmental degradation.

Anyway, for all her fears about debt, the US private sector has deleveraged somewhat and might well be starting another debt cycle. The world economy will limp along for a while yet, I suspect. The future will be much more banal and awful than her rapid-collapse mad max scenario. I think the refugee situation in Europe as things gradually get worse in the middle east is as good an indicator as any. Refugee camps, poverty and squalour, not mad max.

US PATRIOT

Oh and Q2 GDP came in at 3.7%. Anyone lining up for a crash was lining up to get their butts handed to them. The economy is recovering and the markets will resume their upward trajectory. And the bears/doomers will continue to be in the wilderness, as they have been since 2010.

Lidia17

" This is completely erroneous, as oil wells can only ever produce *positive* output, while fourier series work by summing positive and negative compnoents of sine waves of different phases. This argument has no basis in physical reality, and is preposterous."

...oil wells can only ever produce *positive* output.....??

Do you mean oil wells can only ever produce NET positive output?


Re. "systemic deflation", did you ever read Steve Ludlum's Economic Undertow?
http://www.economic-undertow.com/2015/08/13/in-dollars/#comments


The comments to this entry are closed.