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04/08/2015

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Oliver

There's nothing to say about yet another completely unoriginal 'original thinker'. WhoopeeDoo to the Managing Director and Chief Operations Officer.

Meanwhile, happy writing Mr Cohen. Looking forward to the next autopsy of Flatland.

cuntagious

I'm sure Lewis Gilbert means well, but I suspect he's deluding himself with 'hopium' (albeit of a very weak potency). He's not yet ready to acknowledge that the situation is truly and completely hopeless. Scientist Guy McPherson posits that, due to the self-reinforcing feedback loops we've triggered, we're on the cusp of runaway climate change. That is, rapid, non-linear changes to the climate that will outpace the ability of just about all of Earth's lifeforms to adopt and evolve. Accordingly, McPherson predicts human extinction in a mere 20-30 years, regardless of our collective actions. I have no reason to doubt McPherson, and have yet to hear any convincing arguments (backed up with data) that show he's wrong.

Can't wait to read the fourth installment of Flatland. Guys like you and McPherson keep me somewhat sane in this insane, suicidal civilization.

Alexander Ač

Cuntagious,

it's not a very good start of a discussion to equate Dave to McPherson doomerism. Still Flatland.

Alex

Germ


It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.

Jiddu Krishnamurti

Jim

"Just as milk is reliable, safe, and reasonably cheap in New York City, a new energy infrastructure will emerge in the context of markets and human intentionality at the individual and small group scale."

Gilbert gets cheap milk magically and deliciously by the very same system he says will magically and deliciously be replaced. That's some good thinkin'.

@Alex: thanks.

Bill Hicks

Dave--you might enjoy this:

http://boingboing.net/2015/04/03/the-5-psychological-barriers-t.html

The author argues that the key to overcoming climate change denialism is to break through the five psychological barriers that cause such denialism. He concludes:

"What can anyone concerned with climate, but frustrated with the progress, learn from this? That perhaps sometimes it is better to evade defenses than attack them outright. It’s futile to believe that it’s possible to run right through defenses with ever more pointed and grim rational-information campaigns. But communicators can outflank the fortifications behind which many protect themselves from climate reality. To regain momentum, it is better to find territory that lets us move more freely around the Five D’s. I propose we abandon linear antagonism, us versus them. Instead, let’s move more with the flow of the human psyche. People have to want to live in a climate-friendly society because they see it as better, not because they get scared or instructed into it."

See, we all just have to WANT to live in a climate-friendly society--the fact that it isn't possible to maintain our current standard of living in such a society is irrelevant.

Dave Cohen

Re: Scientist Guy McPherson

Well, Alex, it's always good when I can start my day off laughing.

-- Dave

Eye

«new energy infrastructure will emerge in the context of markets and human intentionality [...] we do not know what it is [...] I cannot imagine it».

Amazing. Just amazing. I'm in awe. I also cannot imagine it, but a future with ponies and magical rainbows in the context of markets and systems thinking sounds wonderful.

PD: Greetings from Spain.

cuntagious

So McPherson's just making this shit up?

Specifically where is he wrong in his assessment? Enlighten me.

Dave Cohen

OK, cuntagious

I will explain some things to you.

McPherson has no grasp whatsoever of what the science is telling us. He distorts the actual science all the time.

https://fractalplanet.wordpress.com/2014/02/17/how-guy-mcpherson-gets-it-wrong/

http://planet3.org/2014/03/13/mcphersons-evidence-that-doom-doom-doom/

And McPherson distorts the science because he has an agenda.

Now, it is true that the long view of the human future basically reflects what McPherson thinks will happen in the short term (NTE), but that does not excuse his distortions of what current science tells us.

The important thing-- and this is where you are going to be totally confused -- is that McPherson is basically running a Doomer cult where he is the charismatic Big Man. He's the Chief! This is pretty normal behavior as far as humans go, so there's nothing special going on there.

If you go over to his website Nature Bats Last, you will notice that everything revolves around Guy, or his acolytes, people like that Carolyn Baker woman.

http://guymcpherson.com/2015/04/edge-of-extinction-the-world-of-should/

You of course do not have the cognitive competence or life experience required to understand what you are looking at -- basically McPherson has created a cult of personality (his) around which people have gathered, and this is no surprise in the sense that humans are social animals who are drawn (for unknown reasons) to this social group or that one.

You might consider events like Jonestown at this point.

http://www.history.com/topics/jonestown

I'm not predicting that kind of thing is going to happen with McPherson and his followers -- he is a minor league cult leader --but the human dynamic at NBL is very, very similar to what happened at Jonestown and in various other tragic situations. It's all death, collapse, suicide at NBL. Doesn't that strike you as strange?

Everybody commenting at NBL, figuratively speaking, is drinking McPherson's kool-aid. And doesn't "drinking the kool-aid" describe the Human Condition generally?

Now, it is clear, even if you read my Flatland essays, that you did not even begin to understand them. Don't give up. As you become more experienced on the Earth, you may gain greater insight.

I take my consolation from the fact that there are indeed people who understand what I'm talking about, some of whom made comments on this post.

-- Dave

pintada

And so, Dave by dismissing NTHE completely and the strident tones I heard, you are saying that there is no chance that the methane bomb will in fact go off, and that humanity will never suffer a Permian type extinction event. You are also saying that "near" means near in human terms, not in geological terms (Guy has made a rather bold (and unjustifiable) prediction, but he has admitted to me that his timing is not cast in stone.).

In the geologic near term, given the amount of heat baked into our climatic system now and how much will be added before we stop consuming the oceans will be significantly heated which will likely melt the clathrates thus releasing the methane. I personally give that physical process a 90 - 99% chance of happening, you might say there is only a 5% or a .5% chance of it happening, but to say that it is impossible this time even though it has happened 5 or 6 times that I know about is Flatland.

I grant what you say about Guy personally. Of course he is having the time of his life, getting laid everywhere he goes, and making enough money to make it worth while. And Al Gore is in fact fat and there is a certain great physicist that can't even wipe his own ass.

Still, it sounds as if you hate flatland only when it applies to biases that you do not hold.

Dave Cohen

Re: Dave by dismissing NTE completely and the strident tones I heard, you are saying that there is no chance that the methane bomb will in fact go off, and that humanity will never suffer a Permian type extinction event ... you might say there is only a 5% or a .5% chance of it happening, but to say that it is impossible this time even though it has happened 5 or 6 times that I know about is Flatland, etc.

Thanks for telling me what I think.

Are there any other words you'd like to put in my mouth?

I said -- to be precise -- that McPherson distorts the science because he has a social agenda, which you seem to acknowledge.

And your "90-99%" chance of a catastrophic clathrates melt-off in some unspecified time frame is based on what scientific papers? Please give me some references.

This is the exact moment when you need to take a long, hard look at yourself.

-- Dave

Jim

@pintada: one can only gasp at your comment. It's wrong in at least 5 ways that I can see.

Perhaps you took offense to the Doomer stuff in there, as you likely consider yourself a near-term (meaning very specifically, your own personal lifetime) Doomer. You must be, as I have seen by previous comments that you are very intensively preparing yourself for some sort of collapse within the next few decades. You'll be eating home-made Brie when everyone else is running around like mad chickens, or something like that.

There's nothing wrong with preparing itself. I think that's very prudent at any time, and especially so now. But perhaps you should consider HOW those preparations create a Flatland-type effect in your own mind.

Most of all people just believe what they want to believe, which is a very tight nutshell of Flatland, but the intense focus on preparations can only naturally reinforce a desire for the reasons of that preparation. I often hear a certain tone of longing for rapid collapse in Doomerism. People need their beliefs to be justified, even if it means the deaths of billions to do so.

Dave has been entirely consistent for years about humanity's effect on the environment, which is, we're screwed. His focus at least the last 3 years, though, hasn't been so much on the actual catastrophe (or on the exact time frame of it, which isn't scientifically backed at all) as much as the reasons for it, which basically boils down to human thinking.

This is a far more interesting subject for some.

"Still, it sounds as if you hate flatland only when it applies to biases that you do not hold."

It's not ABOUT hating Flatland. It's about seeing it. No one is immune to it, even Dave. There is only a capability of being aware of its existence.

Also, that was remarkably close to a personal attack. Consider this blog to be like Dave's home. You're invited to sit around the kitchen table and comment. You can argue a counter point, especially if you back it, but it's quite rude to personally insult the host. It's also a great way to get you kicked out.

Oliver

@Jim - Good points well made.

pintada

@Jim
"It's about seeing it. No one is immune to it, even Dave. There is only a capability of being aware of its existence."

I would add to the idea that awareness is good, that in fact once one is aware of the phenomenon I should be careful about the effects of my biases and other failures of logic. A person can limit the number of times one falls for the BS. For example, I very often question if I have done all my preparation because of some sort of delusion, but I can only use the one brain I have and it tells me that I am on the right track. Besides, I'm having a great time at it.

"It's also a great way to get you kicked out." I've been kicked off worse sites than this!!

pintada

@Dave
I'm sorry that I apparently hurt your feelings, but while I like your blog, I do not think that you are beyond being occasionally in error. If you want only sycophants to comment please make it impossible for me to do so.

"And your "90-99%" chance of a catastrophic clathrates melt-off in some unspecified time frame is based on what scientific papers? Please give me some references."
I get most of my ideas regarding the future behavior of the planet from the past. I specifically enjoyed:

Bender, Michael L. (2013-08-25). Paleoclimate (Princeton Primers in Climate) Princeton University Press.

As far as specific climate or clathrate papers go, I'm sure you are as well or better versed as I.

Dave Cohen

@Pintada

You are a fine Flatland example -- you would say anything to defend your own doomer views -- and of course you didn't actually respond to what Jim and I said,.

You have no real awareness at all, do you? You' re just a McPherson Doomer, right? Part of the cult, right?

I am so tired of this unconscious bullshit.

I need another fucking deluded human like I need a hole in the head!

Goodbye.

-- Dave

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