JFC Again!

This post is a follow-up to JFC!, which I wrote on September 11, 2012. That post was about oil and natural gas drilling in the Arctic. If you read it last year, no doubt you remember it. If you're wondering what "JFC" stands for, I suggest you read that post before you read this one.

And why am I invoking Our Savior today? That becomes obvious when you read CNN Money's Global warming is about to remake worldwide shipping. As you read it, bear this question in mind—

Can a species this dim-witted be redeemed?

OK, here we go.

FORTUNE — Call it a silver lining: Geographers are predicting that by mid-century, melting sea ice will open up new commercial shipping routes in the Arctic. That would shave off costly travel time in the late summer and reduce Russia's control over trans-Arctic shipping. For the first time, icebreakers will be able to make a straight shot over the North Pole, and the treacherous but coveted Northwest Passage through Canada's Arctic Archipelago will become a viable commercial route.

UCLA's Laurence C. Smith and Scott R. Stephenson reported the findings on what they're calling "Supra-Polar" routes Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The pair used computer modeling to predict optimal navigation routes for mid-century (2040-2059) between the North Atlantic and the Bering Straight based on seven independent climate models. They restricted their study to September, when Arctic ice is at its minimum...

Smith and Stephenson are looking at optimal polar shipping routes for the years 2040-2059. These routes may become navigable (in September?) just as the planet is becoming uninhabitable for billions of bipedal, big-brained primates. JFC!

But wait, it gets better, because there's potentially a lot of money to be made.

Although it's too soon to know what all this means in economic terms, shipping is already ramping up in the Arctic as ice retreats. A handful of shipping vessels first navigated the NSR in 2010, when the summer ice thinned sufficiently there. Last summer, 46 ships carried oil, gas, and hard minerals from Russia, Norway, and Denmark to China, says Lawson Brigham, a professor of geography and Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks...

"The driver of most Arctic shipping today and in the future is Arctic natural resource developments  — the linkages of Arctic natural resources to global markets," Brigham adds. "Sea ice retreats as observed in the Arctic provide for longer navigation seasons and marine access, but global commodities prices and economics drive the essence of Arctic shipping in the future."

In 2055, those ships will be carrying oil and gas from Europe to China! I don't even know how to begin to respond to this. JFC!

From my post The Earth's Climate — Rethinking "Rethinking Wedges" (January 16, 2013) ... it is possible we would see a 2°C warming even if we implement 9 climate stabilization wedges, which means the Arctic will likely be 5-7°C warmer than the pre-industrial late Holocene average by 2060. Also see Death Spiral Watch: Experts Warn ‘Near Ice-Free Arctic In Summer’ In A Decade If Volume Trends Continue

There's more. With humans, experience tells me that there's always more.

Smith thinks that unreinforced open-water ships could become far more common in the Arctic by mid-century. "These places capture the imagination," he says.

"Many intrepid explorers died seeking clear passage through both the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route in the late nineteenth century while looking for the shortest route between Europe and the Orient, as it was known then. Temptation will grow for ordinary vessels to enter these waters."

Capture the imagination. At least you got that part right, Mr. Smith.

As the Northwest Passage and the North Pole open up, some ships will be able to avoid Russia's Exclusive Economic Zone; Russia charges steep fees for mandatory escorts through this zone.

Although navigating through less-regulated international waters could cut costs, Smith says environmental and safety issues will emerge. "It's both exciting and worrisome," he says. "The Arctic is a dangerous place and always will be. The ice will always return in winter. It's dark. It's remote. Let's just say the northern countries are going to have some patrolling, search-and-rescue, and security issues on their hands in the coming years."

Environmental and safety issues will emerge. Now, stop me if I'm wrong here, sometimes I'm a little off-base, but it seems to me that "environmental and safety issues" have already emerged. JFC!

And what about the ice will always return in winter?  No doubt Smith is right that in 2055 there will still be (some) ice in winter, but I abso-fucking-lutely guarantee you that if we wait long enough, and humans burn every combustible thing on this planet in a futile effort to keep going, the Arctic will be ice free all year long, just as it was during the Eocene 56-34 million years ago. And what a glorious time that will be for trans-polar shipping!

If there's anybody left to drive the boats, that is.

Have a nice weekend.

 

Comments

[Clyde]

I was all for global warming 20 years ago. We were told that northern Europe would be warmer, just like southern Europe is now, and we'd all be growing grapes in our gardens. Brilliant I thought!
The problem is that all it has done for the last 6 years here is rain. No grapes growing in my garden, in fact not much of anything did last year apart from weeds.
I'm not so sure about global warming any more.

[John D]

This type of JFC thinking reminds me of the saying that Elvis dying was 'a good career move'. These folks wouldn't understand that its a frigging joke.

[Brian]

Now, now Dave. I'm sure it will all be fine. I mean, other than the fact that these fools are planning out how we can all go about furthering the ongoing, and accelerating, cooking of the planet and its inhabitants, what could go wrong? Silver lining and all that, right? Humans are "technologically creative", right? It's one of the things we do well, right? What could go wrong?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSGeskFzE0s

Besides, you and I will probably both be long gone by then.

JFC!

[Dave Cohen]

@John D

reminds me of the saying that Elvis dying was 'a good career move'

laughed out loud

-- Dave

[Oliver]

Other examples of positive reframing abound in our super-intelligent culture.

When the Titanic collided with that berg, someone is bound to have said, "Great, plenty of ice for the cocktail bar."

[Douglas M Dillon]

This took me half an hour to write, so I hope you'll have a minute or two to review it.

I had been following your blog pretty closely, but your headlining JFC (after I took the time to look it up) is deeply offensive. I bet there's room in your way of doing things for respect for others and not going out of your way to offend.

There is good reason to conclude that Jesus was the messiah prophesied in the Bible. I suggest you take a moment and read Isaiah 53 for a starter. The major events of the Bible (explusion from garden, miraculous births of Isaac, Jacob, Samuel, Elijah's and Elishah's widows (the latter featuring miraculous ressurections) and many, many other events provide a "sneak previews" of Jesus (prefiguring) which many find persuasive evidence.

The earliest historical records of the events concerning Jesus provide good reason for thinking his death and especially his resurrection actually happened. You could refer to Dr. William Lane Craig's work on the resurrection for this.

Even recent scientific results (notably the Big Bang, evidence for fine tuning of the universe and the Earth, the latest on the origin of life) line up well with a Theistic world view.

I'm hoping you'll take this comment as a chance to reevaluate your use the phrase and maybe even put up a post reconsidering your use. It would show that you are someone with an open mind who is able to reconsider things when he receives new information.

I don't see any upside to its use since its going to immediately turn off a large segment of the population you are trying to persuade.

[Diogenes]

http://www.topfontsdownload.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Yikes-480x144.jpg

[don]

'Even recent scientific results (notably the Big Bang, evidence for fine tuning of the universe and the Earth, the latest on the origin of life) line up well with a Theistic world view.'

-Our problem in a nutshell.