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Wow, household income declined less than 8% for 12 years, isn't it amazing considering oil price increase several fold ?! We definitely have much more surprises on the downside in a future. Food, shelter and energy cost reaching 80 - 85% of the disposable income of average household in the next 10 year will be a realistic estimate.


Jesus Christ. Even though you've covered this stuff in the past Dave, every time you lay things out ... it never ceases to shock and amaze me. People are being RIPPED to shreds from all directions.

Ken Barrows

But growth, as defined by GDP/total credit market debt, has declined for decades. So, how are we going to grow the GDP? Increase debt, stat!

JG Mcpherson

"In fact, the trend since the post-trough interim peak in December 2011 has been one of slight decline, although we may be seeing bottoming process underway."

Dave, IMHO - we are nowhere near a "bottom" - if I understand what you are saying in your other posts. Perhaps you can clarify.

The "bottom" will come when we land back in the middle ages with a tiny elite (done), a small localized merchant class (working on it) and everyone else is dirt poor and eats victuals from a communal iron pot with bowls and spoons made of old automobile doors- and that, when they can find fire wood to cook whatever they have on hand (on the horizon).

Alexander Ač

Ironically enough, global climate system, or at least climate of Arctic, might have undergone phase-shift as well few years ago, in 2007, see this graph:


The scientific paper discussing the implications of NAO shift is here:


But we will know in the future, right?


Dave Cohen

@JG Mcpherson

That line you quoted was written by Doug Short, not me.

That's what indented text means -- I'm quoting somebody else.

-- Dave


Effective. I agree.

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