DOTE Three-Year Anniversary

Although I began this blog three years ago on January 16, 2010, which falls on a Wednesday in 2013, I thought I would do this post on a Sunday when many of my regulars will be reading. On New Year's Day, I posted about the kind of things you are likely to see on this blog in the coming year, so read that if haven't already. A few days before that, I posted about what we can expect to see in 2013—the same old crap—and you can read that one too.

Last Monday I got pissed off about how poorly this blog has fared over the last three years. Here's the traffic graph that some readers think I "obsess" over.

I don't want to dwell on this because I got it off my chest last week, but when I look at this pageviews graph, I see failure. My traffic has been basically flat for a long time now. Some people commenting on that earlier rant didn't think I had any right to complain. Those people can go fuck themselves.

If this blog were about cats & dogs, or cooking recipes or some other ordinary human drivel, I could understand why my traffic hasn't increased much in the last two years. But this blog is about the Big Issues—human nature, growth, the economy, technology, climate, the oceans, oil and other resources, social inequality, and all the rest. One would think, as we suffer through the steady, inexorable deterioration of human living standards in the early 21st century, and the destruction of the Earth's biosphere, that such subjects might attract a growing audience, even if that audience never reaches the lofty heights attained by Politico or the Daily Beast or Gawker or Peak Prosperity.

Well, marketing has never been my forte. I have no interest in it. One doesn't buy and sell The Truth. Reality is not a commodity like copper or hog futures. That's just more human bullshit—the capitalism variety, where everything is for sale. Did you know that when they discovered the first writing in ancient Mesopotamia about 5000 years ago, the first messages they found were on clay tablets detailing crop yields, taxes and IOUs? You know, stuff like Egad owes me three goats. Some things never change

However, as I have found out, sometimes painfully, the joke is on me. Frank discussions of essential subjects like growth and social inequality are simply not accessible to ordinary humans who are living out their lives according to their nature. Ordinary people lack the required consciousness to engage with such discussions. See my post What Would Schopenhauer Think? An end to economic growth? Biologically impaired oceans? What the fuck is this Dave guy talking about?

So I consider DOTE a failure, but a noble failure. I have written this blog and will continue to write it pro bono—for the public good. This is not a "doom-for-profit" site like some others I could name. You won't find the ordinary political or economic babbling which passes for intelligent, informed discussion in contemporary America on DOTE. I want future historians 50 years from now, if there are any, to know that there was somebody who had a disinterested but generally accurate view of the Human Future.

I also want them to know that relatively few people cared about that view (see the graph above) because then it should be abundantly clear to them that Homo sapiens got exactly what it deserved. The never-changing Human Condition (past and future) is a tragicomedy. Shakespeare comes to mind—we see the same old (often comical) foolishness over and over again.

There's much more I could say along these lines, but I've probably said too much already. I want to reprint some text I wrote in my December 20, 2012 post Are We Living In A Computer Simulation? I am addressing The Creator.

To Whom it may concern,

Please don't pull the plug! 

Thank You!

But may I suggest a few small modifications to the current simulation program?  I humbly submit that You might consider these changes, including but not limited to the following, regarding Your Homo sapiens subroutine—

• make it such that they don't kill or physically harm each other anymore
• make it such that they no longer want to fuck each other over all the time
• give them a low threshold of gratification
• make it such that they don't kill off other species and destroy their natural habitat, including the oceans, the climate, wetlands, tropical forests and so on
• make it such that they're not so damned crazy and confused all the time
  
• give them the gifts of Reason and Self-Knowledge, tempered with Compassion
• make them humble, such that they always take a realistic view of themselves
• get rid of those irksome Animal Instincts that cause them to grow like bacteria in a Petri dish

If You would consider these small but not insignificant changes, and some others I might submit in the future, I would be eternally grateful.

Yours in simulation software,

Dave Cohen

I will leave it at that. Peace.

Comments

[Aboc Zed]

Dave,

Why call DOTE failure? Even if it is "noble failure"?
Why do you even need to apply those words to what you do out of the fact that you cannot not to it?

You are who you are.

I think you care too much to be silent. But thinking others care as much as you has always made me do things for wrong reasons and left me disappointed with myself and others.

After my first wife left me I learned that the best way is to just do what I like doing regardless of what others think or want me to do. And I also learned that no matter how hard I try to make myself understood if the other person does not care to undestand me it is all a waste of my time and effort. So I no longer engage the people who do not want to listen. If I ever have the audience that is a bonus. And if I am just talking to myself it is good too.

DOTE is one of the three blogs I read regularly. If I were not in a bad shape economically now I would have had it "on subscription" since I read it regularly. Hopefully I get back into the "job world" - then I can put my money were my mouth is.

[Chris in Chicago]

Dave

You know how people are. If its not a crisis effecting them directly and right know, they just dont care. With something like 60% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck can you really expect them to be concerned about the future of the planet? There just trying to survive. The 20% who are doing well have a vested interest in keeping the current ways going and the politicians are just looting the ship as it goes down and telling everyone life is great!

[ThreeEs]

As people seek the truth and come out of this extend and pretend coma your page hits will increase. Keep up the great work it is appreciated.

[gretchen]

First of all, happy anniversary! Second, I am very glad to have come across your blog a year or is it two? ago. If nothing else, it comforts me that I am not the only one with a nagging concern about the future, although I have trouble expressing myself so well as you and other responders here. It might all feel like a piss in the wind Dave, but I assure it is not. Humans have a terrific ability to compartmentalize problems, and that's what makes Life bearable in the long run. Few want to dwell always on problems and solutions, humans have this incredible selfish need to "be happy" and "have fun". They don't always think about the cost. All I know is that we live in very interesting times and I am grateful to be spending part of those times with you all. Keep your chin up, it is a Noble cause, your writings, and if there are any otherworldly sentient beings tuned into our internet vibes, they must be evaluating and tabulating data about us. I have always felt we were some sort of experiment. Where it all ends up in the long run, who knows and more like who cares?

[Compound F]

You have a few spikes in the record (sort of like the big mass extinction events)that are way above background. Do you know to what posts those spikes correspond? Could you list/link them in an update? The background rate of page views seems pretty respectable to me, considering this is not the type of stuff people want to hear in the first place; but I am am curious about the Big 5 or 6.

[Oliver]

Dave - I second Aboc Zed and Gretchen's comments. I would add that, if you want to talk numbers, I don't believe you are doing so badly on the page hits front.

I don't know how many people are actually interested in interrogating the truth, but we must number less than 0.01% of the population. On this basis, I would hazard a guess that you are reaching a higher proportion of rational sapients than any of those other blogs are reaching "normal" dumbos with their heads up their asses.

Courage, mon ami ... and keep up the excellent work. Recognition may be around the corner - the fat lady ain't singing yet.

[Gene]

Dave congratulations on the 3rd anniversary!
Please don't be upset about the numbers. You are a modern day prophet and none of the prophets have even been taken seriously. Just read the Bible.

Your blog is only a thing I read on the regular basis.
Best regards.

G.

[Jeff Bastian]

Dave,

There is a scene in the Forrest Gump movie when hurricane Carmen hits the shrimp boat out in the gulf. Where was Lieutenant Dan? Cowering below deck? No he was up in the rigging challenging God and fate he was a rider of the storm. In your blog you are doing the same thing.

Jeff

[Mark]

Jesus Dave, what are you talking about in this post? You are clearly 100 times more insightful than the average human. But your exasperation at the fact you aren't getting more page views surprises me. WTF did you expect? Don't you realise how uninsightful most people are? You baffle me

[mark]

TAE blow. They spent mid/late 2009 forecasting near term doom, and in late 2011 when I reminded them about that in response to some post they fricken pretty much denied it and my misanthropy hit max for a while and god knows reading your scathments doesn't help keep it down so please inject 10x more mocking humor into your posts, for me, would you? Cheers matey

[Alexander Ač]

Well,

regarding me, this is one of the best blogs one can find on the internet. That is quite simple fact. And as I wrote some time ago, I am one of the few people in Slovakia (5 million people) reading this blog regularly.

Alex

P.S. I am sure most of people found latest publication of Paul Ehrlich in Proceedings of the Royal Society B (PDF free), with 163 and latest update on collective failure of Humankind: http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1754/20122845.full.pdf+html

[Oliver]

Alex Ac - thanks for the Ehrlich reference. On reading this piece, I see that one solution that's missing is the decapitation of the greedy short-termist plutocracy.

Scientists regularly talk about how we require large-scale international cooperation to reverse the coming collapse, as if all we need is for institutions to heroically work together to stave off the results of centuries of population growth, resource depletion and environmental pillage. The elephant in the room is the erroneously named 'free market' (it's actually a rigged market), which dictates that short-term profit is always the first priority, at the expense of the sustainability of future populations.

Nothing will stop the runaway train towards disaster while the plutocracy keeps shovelling coal into the engine.

[Makati1]

Dave,

I look in on this site daily. Sometimes I comment. Many times I do not. Either way, I appreciate your efforts. I do pass some of the articles along to family and friends by e-mail and hope it touches them in some way, even if they disagree. At least it makes them think and puts a wedge in the door to more investigation and thought.

You are fighting a dumbed-down populace in the Us, but there are many in the rest of the world that DO understand and think. I currently live in the Philippines because of things I see coming in the States and most of the West and don't want to partake of that shit-cake if I don't have to. So much to say, so little time.

Politics and the economy are like talking religion. Not a way to open minds as everyone has a fixed picture/belief they see no matter what reality is. They all have a stake in the system that they don't want to relinquish. Why? Fear. Somewhere deep down they KNOW that it is all collapsing, but they cannot look there ... yet. Some of us can and did. Those are your readers and if they spread the word to even one friend or co-worker or family member, you are reaching many times the readership you record. An author may only sell 50 books, but over the years thousands will likely read and enjoy those original 50. Same here at DOE. I read maybe 20 sites each day, trying to get a clear picture of current events and what may be coming. I am retired. I delete those sites that are so packed with ads that I have to wait for them to download. I start to question the motive of the author when their article is a small part of their blog and their ads are the major part. Those I eventually delete as no longer 'independent' sources of info. Money bends.

I could go on, but ..... I hope you do. I enjoy your articles and have put some of them in my files for future reference. When we stop thinking and considering options 'outside the box', we are dead inside.

Bill

[Oliver]

Bill (Makati1) - Can you hear my hearty applause? You have responded to Dave so much more eloquently than me. I agree with everything you say. Thanks ... and Dave: take heart from your impressed readers.

[P.S]

Dave, I guess the apparent lack of interest in what you have to say kind of validates the underlying thesis of this blog. So, sadly, it's perhaps just more empirical evidence for how unenlightened the vast majority of us humans are. But look at what you're up against:

http://www.google.com.au/trends/explore#q=peak%20oil%2C%20climate%20change%2C%20shopping&cmpt=q

Rome wasn't built in a day. And there's a steep gradient of ignorance and bullshit to struggle against. Which you do, valiantly, to your eternal credit.

[Ean Gray]

Dave,

Your The Realist in a world gone mad. The lone man who tells humanity how it will behave in the face of delusion and ignorance. Yet, when people fulfill the very expectations of that reality, you are upset and seemingly surprised. You can tell me "fuck you" all you want, but the truth is, I think you do care. I think you very upset that the rest of humanity won't listen to you very reasonable warnings and that you know they never will. For that, I truly feel sorry for you. If it is any consolation, I and some others here appreciate writing what were all thinking. It is nice to know were not alone on this one-way ticket to hell.

-Ean

[James]

I hear that Cassandra chick wasn't very popular in old Troy, either. So just shut up and take the horse! ;-) (Or would it be a Wall Street Bull?)

[Aboc Zed]

Dave,

I just finished reading that article by Ehrlich mentioned above and it would be great if you could tear it apart as "useless".

It is so sickening to see that those people think that publication in the MSM is worthy of watering down the message to the degree that it is its own opposite.

There are many comments on this page that are very good and thoughtfull and it is a pitty that all of us are dispersed and it is highly unlikely or close to impossible for all of us to be physically within confines of one locale.

I wish the readership of DOTE could form a nation and declare its independence of the rest. That may have allowed free exchange of ideas and saying how things are without need of sugar coating.

I know that is not going to happen but I do think that your writing is valuable and I do think given the subject matter and your style the readership numbers of DOTE are quite high.

[Ken Barrows]

But if you're lucky, the collapse will start in your lifetime, and you can rub it in everyone's faces ;)

[Dave Cohen]

Some of these comments are amazing to me.

You know, after 3 years of doing this, all I was hoping for was maybe 2000 pageviews a day, or even 3000!

Not millions, not hundreds of thousands, not tens of thousands, just a relatively few more.

If you take the population of the United States only, which is roughly 300,000,000, and use 3000 pageviews/day, that is roughly 0.00001%. If you take the global population, which is 7 billion, you can only imagine what a tiny fraction I am talking about.

But I guess 3000 pageviews/day is way too much for me to ask for!

And then there are those of you who seek to remind me that I am a victim of the very Human Nature which I write so insightfully about, and that I seem blind to that.

Well, no shit! I even mentioned that when I said the joke is on me. What do think, that I just got blind and stupid like the humans I write about? I think not.

Jesus wept.

-- Dave

[Ean Gray]

Uh, don't forget were on your side, Dave. We were giving you sympathy, not grief.

;-)

-Ean

[Dave Cohen]

@Ean

Re: sympathy, not grief

Well, some of you have a pretty peculiar way of expressing it.

The lesson I learned with this post is that I'm not allowed to complain. What some people need to ask themselves is what is Dave's reward for writing DOTE?

In short, some people need to get over themselves and look at DOTE from my point of view.

If I'm unhappy, and people value this blog, maybe those people ought to worry about that unhappiness.

And I'm not talking about money, although donations are much appreciated. And I have no time for people who give me shit, read for free, and never contribute a dime to support this blog.

-- Dave

[Wheelerlucas]

Dave--

of course you have the right to complain. And your reward is that ye shall be proclaimed not scientist, not philosopher, not pundit, not doomer-for-sale but prophet. And as it is written "a prophet shall have no honor on his planet" {we all do now live in a "globalized society"}

The Avatar of this the most unhappy era was not incarnated to bring joy-to-the-world but awareness. When you took up your calling, three years ago, you had much awareness but that final awareness was still denied you -- the awareness that the joke would be on you. Perhaps you had some inkling but now you know the brutal truth. I am not going say "buck-up the next year your hits are bound to go through the roof" because they are not. The pain, the frustration, the unhappiness all are not going to go way. The world will not change.

Dave, what I can offer you is my unconditional love and total loyalty as a reader. Your insights, your compassion are unique and that is what makes them very precious.

As you like to say "there is no free lunch". Your suffering is our gain. There is really quite a lot brilliance in the world. What sets you apart is that you do not look away no matter how painful it gets. Thus your light burns extra bright. Far too bright for most gaze upon.

You really are now entering into uncharted territory. Jesus only lasted three years. But, each great passion is different. Who knows how long yours will last.

Happy Anniversary -- expect a card from Honolulu

A hui hou ...

Lucas.

[Jim]

If the question is whether or not you DESERVE much more attention, then yes, you absolutely do. I sincerely wish you had a much greater readership.

But, your experiences are not unlike many others. Most of the best and most insightful stuff on Youtube has a few thousand views, if that. I was at ASPO USA this year, my first time, and it was a revelation to me to see how small the peak oil community really is.

Telling people what they don't want to hear isn't going to be popular. This hasn't changed, and it won't.

But, even it is just a handful who see it, you're doing great work, and it is appreciated. Thank you.

[Makati1]

Might I add that I hit the same wall with my family as you seem to with your readers. I got through to a total of ONE family member that is preparing. A step-sister that firmly believes as I do and is preparing her family for the coming shit-storm. My own daughters think I am losing my mind and a niece and a work friend that asked me to not send anymore 'depressing' articles to them. It is really frustrating when your own blood thinks you are weird after knowing you all of their lives. I would donate if I could, and if I ever come into some extra money, you would be the only one I would donate to. Hang in there...

[william sorlien]

I think people care, Dave. Most are just overwhelmed right now.

[John D. Wheeler]

Dear Dave,

I'm sorry, but those subroutines are hard-coded into the individuals. I can not make changes to them. Don't worry, though, I'll be recalling the defective units soon. I suggest you do your best to make the cut.

--Whom It Concerns