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11/12/2012

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Gail

What is even more ironic is that the Montreal Accord, which activists love to point to as a successful example of international cooperation, did not solve the thinning of stratospheric ozone, which continues. The science as to why is murky - it could simply be an unstoppable process once initiated, but it could be because the prohibited chemicals were replaced by other bad chemicals, not to mention there is a robust illegal trade in the banned chemicals (see link below). Not to mention, who knows how climate change will interact by impacting temperatures in the stratosphere, affecting ozone destruction? Projections that the ozone layer outside the poles will recover in 40 years are probably about as reliable as IPCC predictions about sea level rise from ice melt, or the rate of permafrost melt, or the increase in future temperatures. About as valuable as the turnips that fell off the truck, in other words.

"As Coolant is Fazed Out, Smugglers Reap Large Profits"

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/08/science/earth/smugglers-sell-coolant-tied-to-global-warming.html?_r=3&pagewanted=all&

Remi

At least scientists have found a way to solve peak oil with the US shale revolution! In Canada's Globe and Mail--

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/shale-revolution-has-us-set-to-become-biggest-oil-producer-iea/article5188639/

The U.S. will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world’s largest global oil producer by 2017, according to the International Energy Agency.

Wait it says: "those projections are based on an extrapolation of the dramatic growth in shale oil production in recent years, which some analysts see as implausible" darn those pessimist analysts...

Dave Cohen

Actually, the implausible "extrapolation of the dramatic growth" quote appears in the Financial Times (subscription required).

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8c2bcdf2-2c9f-11e2-9211-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2C25SY9H5

-- Dave

Oliver

Pessimists (not the same as grumps) are treated like pesky renegades for daring to focus on facts and the realistic implications of these facts as time passes. This can be rather depressing for pessimists, who are pushed to the margins like unwelcome lepers, when all they are doing is pointing at reality.

Oh yes, we should all be optimists, because optimism leads to a positive attitude - the kind of attitude that brings human progress. Like the progress that has brought about the best possible world in 2012.

Brian M

Is it just me or are we increasingly seeing this story...

The context is some enormous problem caused by human beings (okay, they often don't acknowledge causation, so we'll say "affecting"). They trot out a small number of "experts", usually from the baby boomer generation that has been the greatest beneficiary of the behaviors that cause most of these problems. There is always at least one pessimist and one techno-optimist. Then they bring in some young, can-do, baby-faced youngsters with little experience beyond their academic training. These young folks then naturally, having not experienced much in the way of real human nature, blithely dismiss the pessimists as wrong, embrace the optimistic view, and present an aura of self-confidence in the ability of young humans to solve any problems.

Yayyyyyy! Everyone can now feel good. It is safe to ignore the boogie man. Come on! Let's all sing Kumbayah. Life is good! You may all now happily return to your shopping. Nothing to see here. Move along.

Could just be me, but it seems to be I've seen this story line about a half dozen times in the last year or so. This will no doubt not be the last.

Jack Jones

"The power of accurate observation is frequently called cynicism by those that don't have it"

JJ

Gail

Is this the same report you blogged on earlier?

http://news.yahoo.com/u-overtake-saudi-top-oil-producer-iea-132331660.html

Anyway...check out the trailer and think, how lucky we are to have such luscious and timely depictions of the...TWILIGHT of the Empire! http://focusfeatures.com/Anna_Karenina

Dave Cohen

@Gail

The same report?

No, this is some new optimistic bullshit from those ever-hopeful economists at the IEA. I'll deal with it tomorrow.

-- Dave

JohnWDB

Laughlin says "now, let's do worst case scenario", and these scientists cannot make their minds go there. He has to reprimand them and redirect them constantly. It's like watching a sixth grade teacher ask his class "why" they think a candidate should be president--no one is really prepared to think critically. The difference is that sixth graders have an excuse, and they never fancied themselves critical thinkers in the first place.

Frank Furcsa

IEA - World Energy Outlook 2012 - Nov 12

U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020 and other nonsense

http://energybulletin.net/stories/2012-11-12/iea-world-energy-outlook-2012-nov-12

Alexander Ač

Also it is quite "funny" they think we have fossil fuels for "100 years"... what a round nice optimistic number! Thats helluva lot of time to "solve" our energy problems,

I liked the quote o Laughlin that "economists are idiots" - but then, he really does not believe it, does he?

Alex

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