The End Of History

I shall the explain the title of this essay in its conclusion. Keep that thought in mind.

I ran across an article at Jesse's Cafe Americain called Morris Berman On the Decline of Empire: 'Why America Failed'. It seems that Jesse (real name unknown to me) is unhappy with Berman's conclusion—why America failed, past tense. I recently read Berman's book, at least the interesting parts, and my own conclusion was that Berman is confused about a lot of things. For example, he does not seem to appreciate the depth & scope of the energy/ecological predicament of humankind.

However, I must leave Berman for another day. Let's get back to Jesse.

To say that Morris Berman has a 'dark vision' to share is an understatement.

I think his view is legitimate, but only if you look at one somewhat narrow aspect of the American character, and ignore all the rest. It seems to be singularly focused to the point of distortion by a depressive fatalism.

Actually, I'm the fatalistic one. Berman looks like an optimist compared to me.

I have traveled all over the world. To my own view, people are on the whole much the same everywhere.

Right.

The primary difference is that some cultures tend to incent and reward certain characteristics and behaviours more others, and at different times. This creates a certain 'flavor' to that region or country.

Berman would likely agree with this view. Note Jesse's use of the words incent (as a verb) and reward. Those are economic terms, meaning that Jesse is talking about Homo economicus, who is allegedly rational in this regard.

The best example I have observed is the profound difference in the assumptions between the Japanese and American cultural views. But one can still find those sorts of differences in regions of a large country like America, despite the homogenizing effect of mass consumerism and entertainment. But alas, they are becoming less vibrant and distinctive.

My own view is quite a bit more in line with Thomas Hartmann.

Hartmann is a liberal talk show host and writer.

I do think that America 'went off the tracks' in the 1980s, and bought this 'greed is good' meme, which has been repeatedly reinforced by a well funded PR campaign.

And there was a kind of financial coup d'etat that is distorting American policy and character in profound ways even now. It is very apparent if you can somewhat remove yourself from it and then look at it from a 'distance.'..

Such minorities have taken over whole nations before, particularly when the people have become intellectually and emotionally exhausted, but only for a time, and only by the use of systemic violence and repression with which to maintain control and spread the contagion of their madness.

This period now seems very similar to other cyclical changes in the past in American history, that were followed by awakenings and changes in attitudes. One need only to compare the Gilded Age with what came after it, for example. And if I compare America today it seems more like modern China than the America of the 1960's.

It is important to understand that Jesse has articulated the hopes of Americans everywhere, regardless of political persuasion. He is simply coming at it from a liberal perspective. In particular, he believes that we are in the Fallen part of normal cyclical change, and just as happened after the Gilded Age, America will once again rise like a Phoenix from the ashes to re-attain some version of its former glory. I beg to differ.

How do we know what we think we know about the future? That is a deep question, and I've attempted to answer it many times on this blog, mostly to justify the "radical" statesments I make and persuade you to take them seriously. I can not go down that path today, but I can list some specific reasons why I believe America is finished. When I say "finished" I mean—

• the middle class is kaput
• democracy will not reassert itself
• there will be no people's revolution

and the like. You get the idea. It might help to think about the crucial differences between the way Americans lived in the year 1912 and the way they live today in 2012. Here we go—

• The main reasons why the middle class is dying (and won't be resurrected) are economic. For example, depressed wages are now a permanent feature of the American landscape, mostly due to 1) suppression of organized labor; and 2) globalization (corporatization) of the American economy. You can not have a strong middle class without decent wages. Case closed, idiots like Paul Krugman notwithstanding. But I have walked this ground so many times before on DOTE that I will not waste my time rehashing it today. I want to get into some new material.

• Jesse alludes to the "homogenizing effect of mass consumerism and entertainment" but does seem to fully appreciate its Awesome Power. A crucial difference between 1912 and 2012 is the existence now of a Mass Media which wields enormous influence on people's "thinking" in a way that was inconceivable one hundred years ago. Make no mistake about it, I am talking about sophisticated Mind Control, be it ever so subtle. Manipulators were psychological novices in 1912 before Edward Bernays and more modern persuasion techniques. Due to the great technological advances we've seen, these techniques can be applied on massive scales in such a way as to virtually ensure that revolution (caused by our great social inequality) is just about the last thing on people's minds. Would-be revolutionary Chris Hedges can not compete with the Kardashian sisters, who have just launched a new line of eye wear products according to the Hindustan Times of India, and DOTE can not compete with the Pittsburgh Steelers here in the city where I live. The old rules of one hundred (or fifty) years ago no longer apply.

• Jesse alludes to "systemic violence and repression." Again, he underestimates what's going on. The same technological advances which allow status quo messages to be disseminated to the masses have also created an enormous increase in the power & reach of the state (as opposed to the people). I would think this goes without saying, but apparently I have to say it. If a group is planning an act of rebellion, and unless they are keeping quiet about it, the state will know about it a few hours, days (or weeks) after they do. Or if that group does succeed in carrying it out, agents of the state will find them quickly and easily. Modern surveillance techniques are extremely sophisticated and, if assiduously applied, very effective. There's nowhere to run, and there's nowhere to hide, as there once was. This is not 18th century France or America. This is not Egypt, Libya or Syria. These "data-mining" techniques are simply another form of mass communications furtively piggy-backing on normal "consumer" discourse (see Facebook) and transactions (see Amazon). Not to mention cell phones. And if a few people do succeed in getting some minor rebellion going, the state can deploy a variety of means to violently suppress it. Again, technological advances allow the state to suppress uprisings in ways which were inconceivable a hundred years ago. And now we are going to have (predator) drones flying over head! Good luck with that. There is an inexorable human "logic" to all this which no amount of wishful thinking is going to fix.

• America was not quite an Empire in 1912, though its leaders aspired to make it one. (The people were isolationist). But now America is a full-blown Empire in the modern sense, with a military (or intelligence) and economic presence in virtually every country (and ocean) in the world. (If we don't have much of a presence in a country, that country is Russia, China or Iran, or is politically aligned with them—see Syria.) Americans can always be easily distracted by a new foreign enemy if need be, if they are conscious enough to notice the outside world at all (see the second bullet point above). If things get bad enough—one might have thought they already were—a new war will make for a very lively, interminable discussion in the mass media which wipes from existence any other thought our contented citizens might have. As they always do, Americans will rally around the flag and that will be the end of it.

• When Francis Fukuyama wrote a hopelessly naive book called The End Of History (and The Last Man) in 1992, he was referring to the triumph of neo-Keynesian liberal capitalism over all other political systems. At last, it would be possible to put a McDonald's hamburger joint on every corner in every country all over the world (even France). Ironically enough, that triumphant, failed political economic system blew itself up a mere 16 years later. But never mind, because that system did not go away because there is no serious alternative to it. Unlike socialism, which is now dead, there is no other ideology around which people can rally to achieve meaningful political change. What you see is what you are going to get, now and forever (which is not as long as some of you think).

If you have this astonishing mass media, and the power of the state is greater than ever before in human history, and if the state is utterly corrupt, which it is, then there is no hope whatsoever for real social change. (That's why Occupy Wall Street was a will-o'-the-wisp.) America's historical situation is unique in the 21st century because of all that has gone before. The "cyclic" theory of social change Jesse puts forward is merely wishful thinking disguised as political theory. But I daresay most Americans, or at least the ones who still have functioning brains, subscribe to some version of it. They think things will get better. They have hope. We are not surprised.

The comparison with the historical period after the Gilded Age (up until about 1980) no longer applies. The elites who own all the resources and have all the money will have no problem hanging onto (and increasing) that wealth in the 21st century, at least for the time being. (Check back in 2040 after the SHTF.) No countervailing force will arise to take it from them. The kleptocracy has gone global. In this narrow sense, that is the End of History. Fukuyama was right, though not in the way he intended because he saw liberal capitalism as representing humankind's best chance to achieve economic progress (through better technology) and promote human rights (through democratization). Just the opposite is occurring now (see Europe).

Of course, in the larger, planetary sense, we are witnessing the beginning of the real End of History, a process which will take several decades to play out. But that was not my subject today.

Comments

[Wanooski]

Grim, bleak, and right on the money, Dave. The gilded age plutocrats wish they had the kinds of power of manipulation today's plutocrats have, and because of that manipulation, there will be no revolution, not even reform, because that would be "socialism" and would take more than five minutes. So Joe Blow doesn't care, he's got some Bud to drink and a football game to watch.

[Bill Hicks]

I think one of the big reasons why so many people have trouble seeing the truth as you have spelled it out here is because the propaganda has become SO sophisticated that overt coercion such as seen in previous totalitarian societies such as Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union is no longer necessary except in rare circumstances. You and I are free to pretty much say whatever we want about the way things are, and just so long as we do not actively try to organize a violent response the state is not likely going to surpress us. Not because it approves, obviously, but because the expenditure of resources required to do so is not necessary.

It always makes me laugh whenever I read comments like "(such and such) truth teller or whistleblower is going to meet with a fatal accident soon," when it should be perfectly obviously that 99% of the population could not possibly care less what that person is saying. At this point, there is no real reason to read dystopian science fiction anymore (even though I love it). We're living it.

[T E Cho]

Technology has changed everything. Even those who work on it everyday can't fully predict the growth in capabilities of robotics and software just a few years down the road.

It won't provide limitless energy, faster than light travel to distand paradise worlds, cure world hunger or feed everyone, but computer power and robotic capabilities do have much much more power and capabilities to offer very soon.

For it's owners.

[notdavenotcohen]

dave,

since you are so into moderating the comments and turning away "idiots" who disagree i decided to spend my time republishing your blog with OPEN comments

you may chose to kill this comment as usual but may let it in and see if the weirdos comment more than your regulars

i hope you are curious about who you are turning away with your attitude of not letting the "stupid comments" to go thru

of course you may not want to publish this for fear that the other site will gather more commenting than yours - that is always available to you

in any case i will continue copy pasting your posts and you can always check out if anyone ever comments on that site

[Joy]

"the middle class is kaput, democracy will not reassert itself, there will be no people's revolution"

Yes. And the situation is global. In remote New Zealand, the utterly non threatening Kim Dotcom was the victim of an paramilitary airborne early morning assault by the US FBI and local SWAT team for alleged US copyright violation. In Sydney, armed teams of jackbooted thugs with dogs patrol the streets and trains. Meanwhile, London is the CCTV capital of the world. I know people who lived under communism in the 60s-80s, and they all agree that the current global repression is even worse. There are no free peoples, only the boot stomping on the human face forever.

[Wanooski]

What the hell is notdavenotcohen on about? What's the point? Dave reads all the comments before he decides to post them and all of the regulars know the kind of things that the deleted comments are about. Global warming deniers, techno-utopians, conspiracy theorists blathering about the Fed, and vote-topians claiming that whichever presidential candidate you vote for will solve all the world's ills.

[John Andersen]

Dave,

Thank you for that post.

My only happiness is in pushing away from my own life consumerism, and delusional thinking, and turning my heart and mind to meaningful things like helping people, thinking enlightening thoughts, enjoying what is left of nature, etc.

There is joy in that, and in meeting others who are doing the same thing.

And that is good enough for me.

[Ben]

Eventually we'll reach a point the impoverished and radicalized middle class who need jobs, who's job opportunities have been destroyed, are going necessitate a response from the state. A super-militaristic foreign policy, as history shows, is a tried and true method to distract the attention of impoverished and disenfranchised masses.

[Jeff Dison]

I think Mahatma Gandhi is the only real revolutionary with something to teach. I firmly agree that anyone whom directly challenges what is out their currently is a complete and utter fool. I think that in a chris hedges context, I do not disagree with little mini acts of resistance, however, I think that this is something that should take place in day to day living. Their is too many times where I see people talk a good game but do not take the actions to back it up. What do I mean? Ride a bicycle to work, shop at farmers markets, vote with your wallet! In my humble opinion, the oppression is also horizontal. Lots of BS can bed remedied pretty quickly through judging whom we associate with and holding them accountable, which unfortunately is pretty much EVERYONE! It can get much worse before it gets any better and unfortunately, the people with the bad ideas have to die off first, that is one way change actually happens, but change is unfortunately extremely democratic unlike the political ruse of democracy. To the authors credit, I do agree that energy and resource depletion are very real concerns, unfortunately hardcore change is usually accompanied by the proverbial brick wall.

[notdavenotcohen]

@wanooski

to err is human
dave is human
we can expect that some of the comments dave blocks may have benefited DOTE

i am running an experiment to see if there any people who would bother to comment on the mirror site

i think it is highly unlikely that there are many people who come to DOTE and whose comments are always rejected

and don't forget that to sometimes "crazy words of weird people" may spur important discoveries

[John Theodorou]

"Strength Through Exhaustion", or "Last Man Standing" to the bitter end. This is the "Martingale betting strategy" of doubling down after each loss (Paul Krugman's belief that new debt will solve the problems of too much old debt is on such example, as you've pointed out in previous posts). This path only ever leads to dissipation and ruin, quickly and catastrophically and since 99% + of the planet shares this viewpoint to some degree then our goose is indeed, well and truly cooked.

Also, Meadows et al in their c.2000 update to Limits to Growth brought forward the initial estimate for global collapse by 20 years, to c.2030 - c.2050 (the latter date based on a double resource scenario), citing accelerated trends in resource consumption and environmental degradation as the cause, which seem to be increasing exponentially. Perhaps even c.2040 is a too optimistic date, given that things are going from bad to worse more often and with greater repercussions than ever?

[James]

notdavenotcohen: Could you come up with a worse logical fallacy? Sure humans err, but that in no way invalidates any particular statement. Humans also inevitably die. So what? You are twisting the classic illustration of the transitive property (A=B, B=C, therefore A=C) as illustrated with Aristotle (All humans are mortal, Aristotle is human, Aristotle is mortal). If you have a critique of Dave's analysis, just make it. Don't hide behind some "experiment" baloney.

Dave seems to call it as he sees it. If he doesn't want nutjobs making comments about how aliens have infiltrated the govt and are building colonies on Thule, seems fair enough to trim them!

[Robert Henderson]

I think much of the problem lies in the fact that so many women work now (certainly not a bad thing) compared to years ago, that you have so many dual-income households. This creates a major disparity in household income between dual-income homes and single-income homes. Years ago, the majority of households had one income.

On top of that, we have been consistently losing typical "middle-class" jobs (manufacturing). These have been replaced by higher-paid knowledge jobs and low-paid service-sector jobs. So if you lack the education or background for a higher-paying knowledge job, you are more likely to have been pushed down into a low-paying service-sector job.

[TulsaTime]

Well said, author. I hold my most secret optimism in a dark spot, that the economic totalitarianism of our day will shatter in the crash that finance has made inevitable. Sadly, that will also be the start of a great die off. This mass of life on earth is only possible because of the incredibly complex structures we have been able to create over centuries of expansion. Said expansion would seem to be at an end, baring an advance to fusion.