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03/16/2012

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Ben

"OR China has the policy flexibility to engineer a soft landing"

They certainly have the political infrastructure to engineer an outcome, however, soft or hard doesn't begin to describe what may happen.

The Chinese are building out energy infrastructure throughout Central Asia, establishing trade relations with resource rich African nations, and aligning countries on their periphery with their national interests by providing aid and exerting soft and hard power. When the current configuration of their economy collapses, which it will, they'll be in a position to rebuild or face internal revolution.

I'm assuming Chinese leadership, who for all their faults are at the least well versed in tested and proven methodologies of governance, will attempt to unify the country around an existential threat -- The United States of America. The Communist Party of China will sell the Han ethnic group -- the idea that they'll minimize conflict amongst different interest groups in society in order to maintain stability on the national level is an absolute joke considering the demographics -- war as necessary for future development, social welfare, national ascendency, and increased prosperity.

The basic premise that it is possible for the state to engineer development through strict and nationalist governance. I believe the human race has gone down this road before, if I'm not mistaken that conflicted ended with the Atomic bombing of two Japanese cities.

Ben

Courtesy of the sociopath George Friedman's company Stratfor:

China's Trade Deficit Encourages Economic Reform (Portfolio)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jH3yLdynuAw

sharonsj

It seems that the Chinese government is fueling continued expansion for a bunch a reasons. Not only to rival the U.S. as a world power but to keep their citizens both controlled and contented.

But I don't think the average citizen is all that satisfied, since there are pockets of rebellion. And I can't wait to see what happens when they have finally their own housing bust. What will they do with all those cities that are empty now?

Paul

I'm confused, the gentleman in the video started off by talking about China's economy but somewhere along the line he seems to have got it mixed up with the US's economy.

Wanooski

You have just got to love the insanity of them building all these cities and crap with no one actually living in them. Crazy.

Paul

Wanooski - you mean like Detroit? Now you're mixing up the two places too. Easily done my friend.

Lin S

China deemed the western, debt and consumption-based model as the one to emulate. Mistake.

Soon they will learn the hard lessons to which even today only a few westerners have begun to awaken. That is, that perpetual debt inflation is as unsustainable as it is unwise (and immoral), with a staggering price to be paid when the bubble(s) finally pop(s).

I expect a bloodbath to follow. WWIII, here we come...

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