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01/26/2012

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Alexander Carpenter

Dave, it's important to look at the net energy of all that "tight oil" production, whether or not the actual numbers are a fantasy. Since the oil is "tight" (meaning difficult and expensive to produce in terms of both money and energy) it will return less net energy than the oils we have been accustomed to using and figuring on. That means that when 100 barrels of oil (and other liquids) take 40 barrels-worth of energy to produce, that 100 barrels is really just 60. This is a huge difference from when that 100 barrels used 10 barrels-worth of energy in its production.

The Big Lie and the rosy forecasts for production are premised on people not understanding this, and are even less credible therefore. As are the projections for consumption and all the other props of the extend-and-pretend generation — hand-waving and whistling Dixie as we walk past the graveyard wherein the myths of American governance and the cult of growth are interred.

eugene12

Reality is not an option for, almost, everyone I know. Fantasy is so much better. Plus this an election year. Positive news everywhere!! We are living in the era of "dreams and schemes" as the old song said.

John D

Looks like the new method for forecasting is to start with the answer you want, then work your way backward. These folks are giving the political line, and they have to figure a way to make the numbers come out to match the storyline.

By the way, I am reading somewhere that H-C said that the US is producing a record amount of oil. I guess if he can't interpret a chart, then his agencies can put out any type of chart they want and he won't know the difference.

Wanooski

The most brainwashed people in the whole world? Maybe. No one is more susceptible to propaganda than those who think they aren't subject to it.

Bill

Dave,

"In Lincoln, Nebraska they're calling it the worst diesel shortage since the 1970s. And it's due primarily to the oil boom in N. Dakota, which one oil industry executive says may be both a blessing and a growing problem at the same time.

This morning Mike Rud, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Marketers Association told GasBuddy what's going on.

He said that,conservatively speaking, about 2 million gallons of diesel fuel (per day) are being shipped into the Bakken oil fields.

"Between what's going in to run the rigs, there's 200 rigs running; we estimate there's 3,000 gallons a day that just run the rigs. That doesn't take into account the #2 diesel they're using to frack with. They have to frack with #2 diesel fuel so that's what goes into the ground to pump the oil out. They have to frack with something they can refine so there's diesel fuel being used for that. We have no idea how much is being used for that. And, obviously, there's a huge commercial load up there too for what's powering all the vehicles up there. "This is unlike anything we've ever seen," Rud said."

http://blog.gasbuddy.com/posts/N-Dakota-s-Oil-Boom-Adds-to-Midwest-Diesel-Shortage/1715-471938-671.aspx

2MM gallons per day of refined diesel pumped into the Bakken as frack fluid. At present "production" levels, that seems to mean about 30% of the Bakken output is already refined and shipped in diesel.

Dave Cohen

@Bill, @Alexander

Bill's information is very interesting indeed, and speaks to Alexander's point about the net energy return of these shale plays.

-- Dave

Shawn

Pretty soon the will be pumping gasoline into those wells just so they can 'recover' it and put it on the books. Never underestimate funny accounting. I'm sure it will only add to the GDP.

As sad as it is, you have to admit that there are some very 'clever'
players out there. Anything to pump up that portfolio a bit, for a bit longer while they most certainly plan their exit - leaving you know who holding the bag....

Honesty

I just don't understand. Why lie? They're hurting more than they help with lies.

Morongobill

That diesel#2 going into the ground will make for an interesting bouquet and aftertaste in the groundwater.

Anyone else thirsty?

Honesty

Are you familiar with Jay Hansen Dave?

"One seldom thinks about the energy that is consumed in systems that supply energy — such as oil-fired power plants. Energy is consumed when exploring for fuel, building the machinery to mine the fuel, mining the fuel, building and operating the power plants, building power lines to transmit the energy, decommissioning the plants, and so on. The difference between the total energy recovered minus all of the energy consumed equals the “net energy” (in other words, the net amount of energy actually available to society to do useful work). For more on net energy analysis, see my 1999 paper ENERGETIC LIMITS TO GROWTH."

http://warsocialism.com/#net_energy_is_the_critical_variable

Paul

I am going to have to stop drinking groundwater. Maybe I could collect rainwater? As long as it doesn't get too polluted by the time it gets down here, that is. That's assuming the government will allow me to do so, of course.
Wow, drinking water used to be so uncomplicated.

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