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04/14/2011

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John D

As an engineer I look at the world as one big force analysis. True wealth(as opposed to bubble wealth) is proportional to energy; true growth in wealth on a per capita basis is equal to net energy increase% plus increase in energy efficiency% less population increase%. Factor in a larger proportion of true wealth going to the rich, along with diminished natural resources.

You don't need to be a genius to calculate that economic growth for the average person should be non-existant. Energy costs are driving down the energy use that creates economic wealth. Most economists have all these creative and detailed explanations that to me appear like they just can't see the forest for the trees.

Remi

John D., as an engineer myself, I enjoyed a new model that was developped by Timothy Garrett at the University of Utah to predict future GHG levels in the atmosphere. Essentially he developed a thermodynamic based economic model that found that the global economy’s current rate of energy consumption can be tied through a constant to its current accumulation of wealth. The value of the constant is 9.7±0.3 milliwatts per 1990 US dollar. Nothing new, but it's the use of this model to predict GHG emissions that is insightful. The conclusion was that "only a combination of extremely rapid decarbonization and societal (i.e. economic) collapse keeps CO2 concentrations below 500 ppmv within this century."

Initially presented in: http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1010/1010.0428v2.pdf
Elaborated in:
http://www.springerlink.com/content/9476j57g1t07vhn2/fulltext.pdf

Doesn't factor in peak oil, as stated in the conclusion: "For predictions over the longer term, however, what is required is thermodynamically based models for how rates of carbonization and energy efficiency evolve. To this end, these rates are almost certainly constrained by the size and availability of environmental resource reservoirs."

Gail

Oh, and I was hoping the "R" word was Revolution!

sharonsj

Remi--me too. But it's R for reduction in revenue. You cannot have growth when everyone and every company and every government is reducing expenditures because there is no revenue (unless you are a hedge fund manager or an investment banker).

And you don't get revenue if you ship millions of jobs out of the country. You don't get revenue if you wage war for no reason on numerous fronts. You don't get revenue if the Republicans think no corporate taxation and tax cuts for the rich is a swell idea. And you certainly don't get revenue if austerity measures result in firing tens of thousands of workers (aka a circle jerk).

Don't know about you, but approximately 80% of my friends are going broke.

Alexander Ač

Just to share a nice post peak oil traveling animation:

http://vimeo.com/15477088

cheers,
Alex

Morocco Bama

Alex, was that video meant to be satire?

Alexander Ač

Morocco,

you mean the end of the video? I don't think so, but I would be more concerned about the declining phase of the oil age, not of that what is emerging from it... too far for me :-)

cheers,
Alex

Morocco Bama

Alex, when do the planes stop flying? When do we see a break in rush hour traffic jams? What's the dates for these events?

Alexander Ač

Well, I do not know the answer to your question. Nobody does. But if peak oil was only about the traffic, I am happy man...

cheers,
Alex

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