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02/22/2011

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BJ

I believe the real concern is poverty, poverty in the US and around the world. What is driving the protests in northern Africa, poverty. Is democracy going to cure their poverty? Has democracy prevent poverty in the US? I could be wrong, but I suspect the global population has already exceeded the planet's ability to sustain it. As poverty increases, as a result of increased prices across the board, so will social unrest, even here in the US.

BS

Losing 1.6 mbbl/day is serious. However, what if Facebook really has brought about a fundamental change in the ME. All these old dictators falling or about to fall. The Saud family made the deal back in the 1940s to produce their oil. The population of KSA was 3.5 million at that time. Now is is over 30 million. Populations in all the ME countries have exploded since oil allowed it. Now the young are finished with the kings building expansive palaces while they struggle.

So what comes next? If these old relics are kicked out, what kind of oil production agreements will be put in place? Not just 1.6 million barrels are at stake. The global oil paradigm may be changing, quickly.

Jason

Dave - contrast your post with the stories on 60 minutes this past week. If we had a serious citizenry we would disregard stories about our politicians and there sorrowful stories about childhood abuse and stint as a male model and realize we are in serious shit.

Bill

If Libya goes offline the impact on the USA will be mitigated by use of the IMF reserve, that's already been announced. Nothing to see, here, keep shopping.

Greg Hickey

I don't think the Saudis have spare capacity, and I think that they know that they do not.
If they had plenty of oil, why are they one of the biggest employers of offshore oil rigs in the world. They are drilling for oil off of their shores.
And I believe that most of the worlds producing countries know that oil is a declining resource, and they will guard their supplies.

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Dr. C.

This is NOT a problem of spare capacity. This is a problem of industrialized and industrializing societies being suicidally committed to a way of life (monomaniacal petroleum fixation) that is unsustainable even in the short term, --if you bother to consider the environmental costs. This world is HOOKED on oil (& coal & gas), and like any junkie, it goes ape-shit at the mere suggestion that it might not be able to get its fix any longer. Or that it might have to PAY some more. If only all the junkies could really hear with unpolluted ears how ludicrous they sound whenever they start freaking out over where they're gonna get their next 85 million barrels. We don't have time to be concerned with this shit any more. We only have time to be working on what comes after -while we dial it back as rapidly as possible, because what comes after will be here so soon it'll curl your hair. A wise lady once told me it's far better to leave things before they leave you. How many times in my life I have found that to be sage advice!

It IS later than you think.

Remi

Well put Dr. C. Looking at climate change science, peak oil can't happen fast enough, and the projected reductions in capacity will still be too high to avoid climatic tipping points. I find it funny that on one side, we have peak oilers that project economic collapse from a mere reduction in oil production, and the climate change camp that avoids the implications of what needs to be done. We cannot go back to 350ppm with energy efficiency and renewable energy and other gadgets of the green (capitalist) economy. We have to come up with a whole new economic and political systems that have never been tried before. I have little faith that this will be attempted before our hand is forced, and by then (or already) the momentum of collapse will take a long time to slow.

Jongoase

Today there is many countries in the Middle East and Africa are governing by the dictators, these dictators have been over twenty years as the minimum, but Gadafi dictatorship is different, the way he governing the Libya is different philosophy, this philosophy have been applied for over forty two years, if the way today's protesters want to change the system, the country will be in civil war, and Libya will be destroy. As the said, a Gadafi is crazy guy he never leave Libya in this way, so the world has to look very carefully in both side Government and protesters, and need argent intervene.

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